Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,157.

Categories: Fed, Jerome Powell, Economy, Economic Policy, Fed Rates, Finance

Notable Trades

92% macro sharp buying Yes

Elite 92% win-rate cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes on a thin Fed-cut market with a trade equal to two-thirds of 24h volume.

This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up about $2.24M lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader across 304 events with $3.49M in tracked activity.
This trade is effectively a Buy Yes at 11¢ on a thin market, sized at 66% of the past day’s volume.

$2,295 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

91% macro sharp buys NO

Proven 91% win-rate wallet with over $2.1M profit is buying No on a thin Fed market, with the trade equal to 64% of 24h volume.

This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $2.1M lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.1M deployed across 328 markets.
The $2.2K buy was 64% of this market’s 24h volume, showing conviction in a quiet order book.

$2,201 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

91% win-rate macro trader

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 91% resolved win rate is buying No on a plausible macro market, though the stake is modest.

This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up over $2.0M lifetime.
They have traded across 305 markets and $22.7M invested, suggesting a long-running edge.
Buying No at 81¢ means they are backing the view that no qualifying Fed cut happens by the July 2026 meeting.

$1,661 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

Top Holders

0xbdef...fa87 — Outcome 55196773, $108,311
0x49ef...7ed8 — Outcome 55196773, $92,705
0xc4f8...8a4a — Outcome 55196773, $18,516
0x825b...42cd — Outcome 55196773, $18,104
0x03c2...14e0 — Outcome 55196773, $13,830
0xd805...8129 — Outcome 55196773, $9,244
0xd798...f8bc — Outcome 55196773, $7,336
0xe8f7...69c3 — Outcome 55196773, $5,431
0x23e8...39bd — Outcome 55196773, $4,271
0x35e3...3d33 — Outcome 55196773, $3,794

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Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?

ResolvedFed rate cut by...?$6,157 tracked3 signalsFedJerome PowellEconomyEconomic PolicyFed RatesFinance

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for July 2026, currently scheduled for July 28-29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no July meeting takes place by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No”

102¢

100¢

98¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction