Part of: GPT-5.6 released by...?

GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether OpenAI will make a model explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a later direct GPT-5.x successor, available to the general public by July 6, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $8,919 in smart-money activity, with recent signals including an 83% winner and a repeat whale buying No. The market resolves to Yes only if the qualifying public release happens by the deadline; otherwise it resolves to No.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $16,659.

Categories: AI, OpenAI, Tech, gpt

Notable Trades

83% winner buys NO

A highly experienced wallet with an 83% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L is making an $8.9k NO bet while also positioning across related GPT-5.6 markets.

  • This bettor has won 83% of 1,981 resolved bets and is up $13k lifetime.
  • They put $8.9k on NO, equal to more than half of this market’s 24h volume.
  • The wallet is also betting across related GPT-5.6 markets, suggesting a broader thesis.

$8,919 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%

New repeat whale on NO

A very new repeat large bettor with early profit is putting $7.7k on No, a trade equal to about 60% of the market’s 24h volume.

  • This 8-day-old wallet has already made $11.6k in flagged large bets across 2 positions.
  • Its only resolved bet won and produced $5.3k in profit, though the track record is still very short.
  • This $7.7k No buy was about 60% of the market’s 24h volume, showing real conviction in a modest-liquidity market.

$7,740 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

  1. 0x24fb...973e Yes, $18,918 (68% win rate)
  2. 0xacdf...251c No, $15,000
  3. 0x993f...3ee3 Yes, $12,018 (65% win rate)
  4. 0xdacf...3c74 No, $10,675 (83% win rate)
  5. 0xb9df...e654 No, $9,000 (100% win rate)
  6. 0x2240...4409 No, $7,584 (100% win rate)
  7. 0xd109...6fa0 No, $6,110 (78% win rate)
  8. 0x5207...686b Yes, $4,800 (54% win rate)
  9. 0x853c...bd03 Yes, $4,708 (50% win rate)
  10. 0x279c...2b82 Yes, $4,538

Related Theses

GPT-5.6 misses early July

Covers 2 related markets

GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?

3dGPT-5.6 released by...?$16,659 tracked2 signalsAIOpenAITechgpt
Yes
9¢
No
91¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
95¢
74¢
52¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?

1d ago

$8,919 on No at 90¢

90¢91¢1¢

GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?

3d ago

$7,740 on No at 86¢

86¢91¢5¢

Related Theses