Part of: GPT-5.6 released by...?

GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether OpenAI will make GPT-5.6, or a direct successor to GPT-5.5 such as GPT-5.7 or GPT-5.8, available to the general public by June 15, 2026. Smart money tracked on PolySpotter totals $2,224, with recent signals including a profitable wallet buying NO and activity from a sharp cross-market AI bettor.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $7,424.

Categories: AI, OpenAI, Tech, gpt

Notable Trades

Sharp cross-market AI bettor

Sharp wallet with an 86% resolved-bet record is extending a cross-market No thesis across related GPT release markets.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved bets and is up $2.3K lifetime.
  • They have placed $6.5K across 4 related GPT-release markets, showing a broader No thesis.
  • Bought No at 88¢, implying strong confidence GPT-5.6 will not be public by the deadline.

$2,224 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

Profitable new wallet buying NO

A 10-day-old repeat bettor with early profits is placing a sizable $5.2k NO bet on a plausible information-driven AI release market.

  • This 10-day-old bettor is already up $961 and has won all 3 resolved trades so far.
  • They put $5,200 on No, a large bet relative to the market’s $6,610 liquidity.
  • Entry at 86¢ implies a high-conviction view that GPT-5.6 will not be publicly released by June 15.

$5,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

  1. 0x0055...de40 No, $10,570 (100% win rate)
  2. 0xb2f5...2f29 No, $5,383 (73% win rate)
  3. 0x6748...151b No, $3,403 (86% win rate)
  4. 0x279c...2b82 Yes, $2,444
  5. 0xb100...6461 No, $2,439 (59% win rate)
  6. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $2,202 (47% win rate)
  7. 0x0482...6b0a Yes, $2,142 (31% win rate)
  8. 0xf58c...d588 Yes, $2,140
  9. 0xceca...3f67 No, $2,071 (70% win rate)
  10. 0xadb6...ff87 Yes, $1,903

Related Theses

GPT-5.6 launch delayed past July

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?

5dGPT-5.6 released by...?$7,424 tracked2 signalsAIOpenAITechgpt
Yes
13¢
No
87¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
95¢
58¢
21¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?

54m ago

$2,224 on No at 88¢

88¢87¢1¢

GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?

1h ago

$5,200 on No at 86¢

86¢87¢1¢

Related Theses