Part of: GPT-5.6 released by...?
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $11,097.
Categories: AI, OpenAI, Tech, gpt
Notable Trades
Profitable serial trader buys NO
Experienced cross-market trader with a large profitable history bought No as the market continues moving sharply against a GPT-5.6 release by June 15.
- This bettor has traded 478 markets across 287 events and is up about $86K lifetime.
- They bought No at 89¢ after Yes fell 56.5% over the past week, aligning with strong market momentum.
- Entry at 89¢ is a high-confidence bet that GPT-5.6 will not be released by June 15.
$1,206 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Sharp bettor flips to YES
Sharp wallet with an 83% resolved-bet win record is flipping from a prior No position into Yes after a major price drop.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up about $9.9K lifetime.
- They previously closed a No position and are now buying Yes at 25¢.
- Yes is down sharply over the week, so this looks like a contrarian buy from a proven wallet.
$1,003 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Sharp cross-market AI bettor
Sharp positive-P&L wallet with an 86% resolved-bet record is extending a cross-market OpenAI release thesis by buying No at 89¢.
- This bettor has won 86% of resolved trades and is up $2.3K lifetime.
- They have positioned across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 89¢ signals high confidence that a GPT-5.6 public release by June 15 is unlikely.
$1,464 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Sharp cross-market AI bettor
Sharp wallet with an 86% resolved-bet record is extending a cross-market No thesis across related GPT release markets.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved bets and is up $2.3K lifetime.
- They have placed $6.5K across 4 related GPT-release markets, showing a broader No thesis.
- Bought No at 88¢, implying strong confidence GPT-5.6 will not be public by the deadline.
$2,224 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Profitable new wallet buying NO
A 10-day-old repeat bettor with early profits is placing a sizable $5.2k NO bet on a plausible information-driven AI release market.
- This 10-day-old bettor is already up $961 and has won all 3 resolved trades so far.
- They put $5,200 on No, a large bet relative to the market’s $6,610 liquidity.
- Entry at 86¢ implies a high-conviction view that GPT-5.6 will not be publicly released by June 15.
$5,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0x8b9c...024c — Yes, $5,160
- 0x7780...a743 — Yes, $4,046
- 0x0298...5cdc — Yes, $3,955 (81% win rate)
- 0x6790...e4cb — Yes, $2,190
- 0xf58c...d588 — Yes, $2,140 (36% win rate)
- 0x7578...6426 — Yes, $2,000 (84% win rate)
- 0xb1f1...9986 — Yes, $1,856
- 0x5b75...433b — Yes, $1,258 (52% win rate)
- 0x474e...cf52 — Yes, $1,225
- 0xe05a...5fdd — Yes, $1,163
Related Theses
Iran deal lands in July
Covers 8 related markets
Claude 5 launches by April
Covers 4 related markets
Karmine Corp wins series, Games 2–3
Covers 3 related markets
The Odyssey finishes $550–570m
Covers 2 related markets
Spider-Man grosses $800M–$900M
Covers 2 related markets
Spider-Man grosses under $900M
Covers 2 related markets
Rams win a low-scoring game
Covers 3 related markets
