Part of: GPT-5.6 released by...?

GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,773.

Categories: AI, OpenAI, Tech, gpt

Notable Trades

Sharp AI bettor flips No

Sharp wallet with an 85% win record and positive lifetime P&L flipped from a prior Yes position to buying No across related GPT release markets.

  • This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $9.6K lifetime.
  • They have put $6.0K across 3 related GPT release markets, pointing to a broader AI-release thesis.
  • They previously closed a Yes position here and are now buying No at 59¢, showing a clear change in view.

$2,228 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

Sharp AI bettor flips No

Sharp wallet with an 85% win record and positive lifetime P&L flipped from a prior Yes position to buying No across related GPT release markets.

  • This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $9.6K lifetime.
  • They have put $6.0K across 3 related GPT release markets, pointing to a broader AI-release thesis.
  • They previously closed a Yes position here and are now buying No at 59¢, showing a clear change in view.

$1,486 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

New AI-release whale

Very new wallet has repeatedly placed large bets, now buying Yes on a relatively quiet AI-release market despite recent price weakness.

  • This 2-day-old wallet has already triggered 11 large-bet alerts totaling $22,000.
  • The $2,000 buy was larger than recent daily volume on a thin market, suggesting strong conviction.
  • The bettor paid 85¢ while the market is now around 74¢, so this is a contrarian add after a recent selloff.

$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

Proven winner buying favorite

Surfaced despite a weak low-activity signal because the buyer has a strong 328-bet record with positive lifetime P&L.

  • This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $24,069 lifetime.
  • They bought $1,058 of Yes at 89¢, adding to a market that moved 9 points today.
  • The market is still moderately quiet, so a sharp wallet paying near 90¢ suggests strong conviction.

$1,058 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%

Top Holders

  1. 0x5a21...9318 Outcome 25525727, $5,170 (61% win rate)
  2. 0x5ce6...5cf2 Outcome 25525727, $3,428 (20% win rate)
  3. 0xae76...2763 Outcome 25525727, $3,263 (30% win rate)
  4. 0x0bd8...a74a Outcome 25525727, $3,000
  5. 0x0149...d3c5 Outcome 25525727, $2,459
  6. 0x76aa...c4f4 Outcome 25525727, $2,353 (100% win rate)
  7. 0x309b...02a0 Outcome 25525727, $1,934
  8. 0xe8c4...395d Outcome 25525727, $1,346 (94% win rate)
  9. 0x72cb...9eb3 Outcome 25525727, $1,206
  10. 0x37b2...ab29 Outcome 25525727, $1,073

Related Theses

Fed avoids rate cuts

Covers 2 related markets

Anthropic overtakes Google AI

Covers 2 related markets

Neither Google nor Anthropic leads

Covers 2 related markets

GPT-5.6 delayed past June

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Starmer out by June 2026

Covers 2 related markets

Max attends, Sabrina skips wedding

Covers 2 related markets

WTI slides to $65

Covers 3 related markets

Claude debuts in low 1530s

Covers 2 related markets

OpenAI IPO by September 2026

Covers 2 related markets

GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?

ResolvedGPT-5.6 released by...?$6,773 tracked4 signalsAIOpenAITechgpt

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?

62d ago

$2,228 on No at 59¢

GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?

62d ago

$1,486 on No at 59¢

GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?

69d ago

$2,000 on Yes at 85¢

GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?

76d ago

$1,058 on Yes at 89¢

Related Theses