Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Houthis initiate a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Houthi forces that physically impact land under Israeli control. Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,410.
Notable Trades
Profitable trader caught repricing
A profitable high-volume wallet bought Yes at 48¢ before this market repriced to 97%, capturing a major move in a real-world geopolitical market.
- This bettor is up $461k across nearly 800 resolved trades, showing a real track record
- They bought Yes at 48¢ before the market jumped to 97%, a near 49-point move in their favor
- The move came with a strong market-wide surge, with this contract up 59.5% in the last day
$1,118 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 60%
Profitable bettor caught mispriced Yes
A profitable high-volume bettor put $7.3k into Yes while this market was ripping higher, including an unusually cheap fill at 48¢ before odds moved to 86%.
- This bettor has 797 resolved trades and is up $461k overall
- They bought $7.3k of Yes as the market jumped 35 points in a day
- One fill came at 48¢ and the market is now 86¢, suggesting they caught a stale price early
$7,292 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 60%
Top Holders
- 0x8f42...b88f — Yes, $11,216 (60% win rate)
- 0x40f1...15f9 — Yes, $2,870 (21% win rate)
- 0x8276...48e4 — Yes, $2,596
- 0x77c8...bc8c — No, $2,500 (62% win rate)
- 0x5bcb...725a — No, $2,274
- 0x4d0e...c45b — Yes, $2,109
- 0xb4f2...e5fa — No, $2,067 (69% win rate)
- 0x75ac...33d7 — No, $1,804
- 0x695c...10a1 — No, $1,721
- 0xe295...55b3 — No, $1,635
