Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Houthis initiate a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Houthi forces that physically impact land under Israeli control. Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $15,562.
Notable Trades
6 sharp wallets pile into Yes
Six experienced and profitable wallets piled into Yes within minutes as this market exploded higher, suggesting coordinated conviction on a fast-moving geopolitical development.
- Six wallets bought the same side for $12.5k in a few minutes while Yes jumped 38 points.
- Several of these bettors have strong track records, including wallets with 94%, 90%, and 75% win rates.
- Some entries were as low as 37¢, and the market now trades at 94¢ after a 230x volume spike.
$12,460 on Yes
96% win-rate serial trader
A serial cross-market trader with a 96% win rate added to the favored No side in this conflict market after a sharp weekly price drop, making it a notable follow despite the modest ticket size.
- This bettor wins 96% of resolved markets across 1,416 bets, showing a strong pattern of picking outcomes that finish in the money.
- They bought No at 79¢ after the Yes side fell 26 points over the past week, backing the market favorite as tensions cooled.
- They trade heavily across related markets — 270 events and 349 markets tracked — which suggests a repeatable event-driven process rather than a one-off bet.
$1,386 on No | Wallet win rate: 96%
96% win-rate event trader
A serial cross-market trader with an extraordinary 96% hit rate is buying No in a geopolitical event market at 78¢, making this a notable follow despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 96% of resolved markets across 1,409 bets, showing rare consistency at scale.
- They trade across related markets heavily — 270 events and 348 markets — which suggests a repeatable event-driven edge.
- They bought No at 78¢ while the market sits near 76% No, signaling a clear but not crowded view against a Houthi strike by the deadline.
$1,716 on No | Wallet win rate: 96%
Top Holders
- 0xa9e8...c443 — No, $19,718 (96% win rate)
- 0x1424...2c7f — Yes, $4,689
- 0x438d...9914 — No, $3,919
- 0x872e...e58f — No, $3,825 (26% win rate)
- 0x3e88...df66 — No, $3,339
- 0xcb84...4fbc — No, $3,282 (62% win rate)
- 0x8de5...2b04 — No, $3,000
- 0xf00d...a887 — No, $2,803
- 0x8b74...4127 — Yes, $2,240
- 0xe8c2...9eee — No, $2,103
