Part of: Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?

This prediction market asks whether Iran will officially announce and begin collecting mandatory fees, tolls, tariffs, or similar charges from commercial vessels passing through or accessing the Strait of Hormuz. It resolves on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET; PolySpotter currently tracks one smart money signal, with recent activity scaling into No.

This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $10,642.

Categories: Iran, toll, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz, Oil

Notable Trades

Profitable bettor adding to event-wide No position

A profitable, high-volume bettor is adding to a large No position while holding related positions across four markets in the same event.

  • This bettor is up about $70,000 across 694 resolved bets and is adding to a substantial No position.
  • They have positioned across four related markets, with $26,383 in total activity and trades detected in prior runs.
  • The new No entry was 79¢, close to the current 80¢ market price.

$1,309 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%

Profitable bettor adding to event-wide No position

A profitable, high-volume bettor is adding to a large No position while holding related positions across four markets in the same event.

  • This bettor is up about $70,000 across 694 resolved bets and is adding to a substantial No position.
  • They have positioned across four related markets, with $26,383 in total activity and trades detected in prior runs.
  • The new No entry was 79¢, close to the current 80¢ market price.

$1,299 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%

Serial trader scales into No

A serial cross-market trader with 207 resolved bets added a sizable No position in a thin market, worth monitoring despite only modest historical edge.

  • This wallet has traded 76 markets across 47 events, with 207 resolved bets and a 73% win rate.
  • The $3,622 addition was over three times the market’s entire 24-hour volume, signaling meaningful conviction in a quiet market.
  • The trader already held $6,714 of No shares and is increasing that position while No is priced near 54¢.

$3,364 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Serial trader scales into No

A serial cross-market trader with 207 resolved bets added a sizable No position in a thin market, worth monitoring despite only modest historical edge.

  • This wallet has traded 76 markets across 47 events, with 207 resolved bets and a 73% win rate.
  • The $3,622 addition was over three times the market’s entire 24-hour volume, signaling meaningful conviction in a quiet market.
  • The trader already held $6,714 of No shares and is increasing that position while No is priced near 54¢.

$1,048 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Serial trader scales into No

A serial cross-market trader with 207 resolved bets added a sizable No position in a thin market, worth monitoring despite only modest historical edge.

  • This wallet has traded 76 markets across 47 events, with 207 resolved bets and a 73% win rate.
  • The $3,622 addition was over three times the market’s entire 24-hour volume, signaling meaningful conviction in a quiet market.
  • The trader already held $6,714 of No shares and is increasing that position while No is priced near 54¢.

$3,622 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Top Holders

  1. 0x8792...4174 — No, $23,190 (83% win rate)
  2. 0x066a...550d — No, $17,717 (61% win rate)
  3. 0x6bab...0fe5 — No, $16,953 (75% win rate)
  4. 0x246b...1196 — Yes, $12,814 (80% win rate)
  5. 0xcca9...4c9f — Yes, $12,491 (67% win rate)
  6. 0xbaa2...2c73 — No, $9,809 (64% win rate)
  7. 0xdf17...97d1 — Yes, $8,359 (60% win rate)
  8. 0xef9f...8924 — Yes, $8,099 (29% win rate)
  9. 0xbd04...fbb0 — No, $8,061 (73% win rate)
  10. 0xa8da...f944 — Yes, $7,139 (55% win rate)

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Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?$10,642 tracked5 signalsIrantollGeopoliticsStrait of HormuzOil
Yes
12¢
No
88¢

This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No”
90¢
87¢
84¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?

2026-10-08 14:03 UTC

$1,309 on No at 79¢

79¢→88¢↑9¢

Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?

2026-10-02 08:14 UTC

$1,299 on No at 79¢

79¢→88¢↑9¢

Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?

2026-08-22 14:58 UTC

$3,364 on No at 54¢

54¢→88¢↑34¢

Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?

2026-08-20 20:59 UTC

$1,048 on No at 54¢

54¢→88¢↑34¢

Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?

2026-08-17 05:09 UTC

$3,622 on No at 54¢

54¢→88¢↑34¢

Related Theses