Part of: Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?

This Polymarket market asks whether a widely reported, coordinated effort by military, security forces, or other state actors to seize or overthrow Iran’s government will occur by December 31, 2026. Current odds were not included in the supplied market metadata; the page tracks $31,571 in smart money and reports one signal, a five-wallet No conviction cluster.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $31,571.

Categories: Geopolitics, Iran Regime, Reza Pahlavi, Iran, Israel, World, Trump, Middle East

Notable Trades

Five-wallet No conviction cluster

Five wallets added $31,571 to No positions in a 61.6x volume spike, showing coordinated conviction despite modest track records.

  • Five wallets put $31,571 on No, nearly matching the market’s reported liquidity.
  • The trades coincided with a 61.6x volume spike, and all five wallets were already holding No positions.
  • The group bought No at 89¢; the wallets’ short track records are mixed, so the signal is mainly the coordinated flow.

$31,571 on No

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 — No, $37,130 (72% win rate)
  2. 0x4478...02a4 — Yes, $20,000 (59% win rate)
  3. 0x24be...44cb — Yes, $11,239
  4. 0x97ea...3363 — Yes, $3,382 (71% win rate)
  5. 0xe41a...29bd — No, $2,000 (83% win rate)
  6. 0xca44...450a — Yes, $1,743
  7. 0x5006...5eaa — Yes, $1,574
  8. 0x63e3...f341 — Yes, $1,548 (63% win rate)
  9. 0xe13a...ee7a — No, $1,395 (88% win rate)
  10. 0x9078...26af — Yes, $1,381

Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?

Iran coup attempt by June 30?$31,571 tracked1 signalGeopoliticsIran RegimeReza PahlaviIranIsraelWorldTrumpMiddle East
Yes
14¢
No
86¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No”
94¢
88¢
82¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?

2026-10-22 06:19 UTC

$31,571 on No at 89¢

89¢→86¢↓3¢