Iran coup attempt by June 30?
20 signals across 1 market · $389,513 tracked · resolves Jun 30, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether a widely reported coup attempt occurs in Iran before the June 30, 2026 deadline. Traders are pricing the Yes/No outcome, while PolySpotter has tracked nearly $390K in smart money activity, with recent alerts showing new wallets and whales backing No and fading coup risk.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- New wallet backing NO
New wallet repeatedly put nearly $12k through the No side during an 89x volume spike on a geopolitical market, signaling fresh conviction despite no resolved track record.
$11,748Score: 8.6 - New whale buying No
A repeat-flagged new wallet put roughly $35k into No during a major volume spike, signaling high conviction against an Iran coup attempt despite no resolved track record.
$35,244Score: 8.4 - New whale backing No
A brand-new wallet made a large repeated No buy during a major volume spike, suggesting conviction that no Iran coup attempt occurs by the deadline despite recent Yes momentum.
$46,992Score: 8.3 - New whale backing No
A new repeat-flagged wallet put $35.2k on No during a 240x volume spike in a geopolitically plausible information market.
$35,244Score: 8.3 - New whale fading coup risk
A repeat-flagged new wallet put a large concentrated No position into a geopolitics market during a 157x volume spike, despite having no resolved track record yet.
$38,124Score: 8.2 - New whale fading coup odds
A new wallet made a concentrated $15.3k No bet during a 157x volume spike on a geopolitical market, creating a high-conviction but unproven signal.
$15,308Score: 8.2 - New whale buying No
A repeat-flagged new wallet has put meaningful size into No on a geopolitics market during a large volume spike, but there is no resolved track record yet.
$22,410Score: 8.2 - New whale buying NO
A new wallet repeatedly bought $21k of No into a major volume spike on a geopolitics market, suggesting confident positioning against an Iran coup attempt by June 30.
$21,049Score: 8.2 - New whale buying No
A repeat-flagged new wallet is making another large, concentrated No bet on a high-volume geopolitical market amid a major volume spike, but it has no resolved track record yet.
$19,530Score: 8.1 - New whale fading coup odds
New repeat-flagged wallet put $21k on No during a 124x volume spike in a geopolitically sensitive market, though it has no resolved track record yet.
$21,049Score: 8.1
Top wallets in this event
- 0xf52a9b…d86a$258,078 · 1 market · 9 alerts
- 0x3dfca4…3491$72,713 · 1 market · 4 alerts
- 0x3a97b1…8dd8$26,700 · 1 market · 2 alerts
- 0x47e04e…2e83$16,380 · 1 market · 1 alert
- 0x1e3986…8746$7,875 · 1 market · 1 alert
- 0xaed8a9…4437$2,736 · 1 market · 1 alert
- 0x162f6f…798d$2,547 · 1 market · 1 alert · 67% wins
- 0xda28f8…b1df$2,484 · 1 market · 1 alert
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for an Iran coup attempt by June 30?
The event’s odds reflect the market-implied probability that a qualifying coup attempt in Iran happens before the June 30, 2026 cutoff. On PolySpotter, you can track the current Yes/No pricing alongside smart money flows and recent whale activity.
What counts as a coup attempt for this Iran market?
The market is based on a widely reported, coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors or factions to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of Iran’s government or leadership. General protests, non-state revolutionary actions, or isolated unrest would not necessarily qualify under the market rules.
What is smart money doing on the Iran coup attempt market?
Recent PolySpotter alerts show multiple smart money signals leaning toward No, including new wallets backing No, new whales buying No, and whales fading coup risk. In total, PolySpotter is tracking about $389,513 in smart money activity across this event.
When does the Iran coup attempt market resolve?
The market resolves based on whether a qualifying coup attempt is widely reported between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no qualifying event occurs by the deadline, the market resolves to No.
Why follow this Iran coup attempt prediction market on PolySpotter?
PolySpotter adds context beyond the headline odds by tracking smart money wallets, whale trades, and signal alerts. That can help users see whether sophisticated traders are buying coup risk or fading it as geopolitical news develops.