Part of: Iran Nuke before 2027?
Iran Nuke before 2027?
This Polymarket prediction market asks whether credible international agencies, Iran’s government, or major global news sources will confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026. PolySpotter currently tracks $4,500 in smart money activity on this market from 1 signal, including interest from a profitable serial cross-market bettor. The market resolves “Yes” only if possession of a nuclear weapon is officially or credibly confirmed by the deadline; otherwise it resolves “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $4,500.
Categories: Politics, World, Geopolitics, Iran, Middle East, Nuclear
Notable Trades
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large No bet relative to recent activity on a geopolitical market.
- This bettor has 893 resolved trades, wins 73% of them, and is up $37.6K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 31 events, suggesting a repeatable thesis-driven style.
- The $4.5K No buy was larger than recent market activity flagged by the system, showing conviction at 90¢.
$4,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
Top Holders
- 0x55db...2031 — Yes, $127,516 (55% win rate)
- 0x6d9f...9790 — No, $90,195 (62% win rate)
- 0x4755...7ad2 — Yes, $31,880
- 0xbafd...2964 — Yes, $23,487
- 0xa81e...03dc — Yes, $20,000 (55% win rate)
- 0xd1d7...71dc — Yes, $19,491
- 0xe9fe...22eb — No, $19,186 (100% win rate)
- 0xa8c6...44e8 — No, $15,852 (68% win rate)
- 0x9507...7b04 — No, $13,350 (88% win rate)
- 0x8f42...b88f — No, $13,332 (58% win rate)
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