Part of: Iran Nuke before 2027?
Iran Nuke before 2027?
This prediction market tracks whether credible international agencies, Iran’s government, or major global news sources confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $7,120 in smart money activity on this market, including a signal from a profitable serial cross-market bettor.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $11,620.
Categories: Politics, World, Geopolitics, Iran, Middle East, Nuclear
Notable Trades
88% serial cross-market bettor
Surfaced because a highly experienced positive-P&L wallet with an 88% resolved-bet win rate is buying No on a geopolitics market despite only moderate alert severity.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades across 2,137 bets and is up $82.6K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 418 markets and $7.2M in tracked event volume.
- The $7.1K No buy is over half of the market’s 24h volume, showing meaningful conviction.
$7,120 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large No bet relative to recent activity on a geopolitical market.
- This bettor has 893 resolved trades, wins 73% of them, and is up $37.6K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 31 events, suggesting a repeatable thesis-driven style.
- The $4.5K No buy was larger than recent market activity flagged by the system, showing conviction at 90¢.
$4,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%
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