Part of: Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 22?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management policies. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Oman and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $5,149.
Categories: Iran, Trump, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz
Notable Trades
92% winner adds to No
A highly successful serial cross-market trader with a 92% win rate added roughly $5,149 to No across three related markets, despite already holding the outcome.
- This bettor has won 92% of 89 resolved trades and is up $70,585 lifetime.
- They added about $5,149 to No across three markets in the same event, with entries averaging roughly 74¢.
- No has since risen to 91¢ from their 69¢–88¢ entries, showing the position is already moving their way.
$5,149 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
Top Holders
- 0xeb22...808a — Yes, $25,080 (34% win rate)
- 0xdf17...97d1 — No, $12,247 (56% win rate)
- 0xe52c...6924 — No, $10,010 (88% win rate)
- 0xe738...df65 — No, $9,390 (62% win rate)
- 0x18e1...a55a — No, $7,874
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $6,874 (69% win rate)
- 0xd426...334a — Yes, $6,114 (48% win rate)
- 0x3a23...0f72 — Yes, $3,801 (24% win rate)
- 0x85d5...aece — No, $3,000 (79% win rate)
- 0x3eae...e2ed — No, $2,616 (98% win rate)
Related Theses
No new Abraham Accords members
Covers 1 related market
Iranian blockade will persist
Covers 2 related markets
US-Iran ceasefire holds by July 31
Covers 1 related market
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement Delayed Past September
Covers 4 related markets
Phase II ceasefire won’t happen
Covers 2 related markets
Foreign intervention in Gaza soon
Covers 1 related market
Houthis will hit shipping
Covers 1 related market
Díaz-Canel remains Cuba’s leader
Covers 2 related markets
Houthis avoid Saudi attacks
Covers 1 related market
Ceasefire holds through mid-August
Covers 6 related markets
