Part of: Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 22?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management policies. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Oman and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $5,149.

Categories: Iran, Trump, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz

Notable Trades

92% winner adds to No

A highly successful serial cross-market trader with a 92% win rate added roughly $5,149 to No across three related markets, despite already holding the outcome.

  • This bettor has won 92% of 89 resolved trades and is up $70,585 lifetime.
  • They added about $5,149 to No across three markets in the same event, with entries averaging roughly 74¢.
  • No has since risen to 91¢ from their 69¢–88¢ entries, showing the position is already moving their way.

$5,149 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

Top Holders

  1. 0xeb22...808a Yes, $25,080 (34% win rate)
  2. 0xdf17...97d1 No, $12,247 (56% win rate)
  3. 0xe52c...6924 No, $10,010 (88% win rate)
  4. 0xe738...df65 No, $9,390 (62% win rate)
  5. 0x18e1...a55a No, $7,874
  6. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $6,874 (69% win rate)
  7. 0xd426...334a Yes, $6,114 (48% win rate)
  8. 0x3a23...0f72 Yes, $3,801 (24% win rate)
  9. 0x85d5...aece No, $3,000 (79% win rate)
  10. 0x3eae...e2ed No, $2,616 (98% win rate)

Related Theses

No new Abraham Accords members

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Iranian blockade will persist

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US-Iran ceasefire holds by July 31

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Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement Delayed Past September

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Phase II ceasefire won’t happen

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Foreign intervention in Gaza soon

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Houthis will hit shipping

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Díaz-Canel remains Cuba’s leader

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Houthis avoid Saudi attacks

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Ceasefire holds through mid-August

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Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 22?

ResolvedIran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?$5,149 tracked1 signalIranTrumpPeace DealGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz
Yes
0¢
No
100¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management policies. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Oman and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
102¢
92¢
82¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 22?

6d ago

$5,149 on No at 74¢

74¢100¢26¢

Related Theses