Part of: Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?

This prediction market asks whether Iran and Oman will announce a qualifying diplomatic agreement on managing traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The provided data does not include live market odds; smart-money tracking shows $2,038 in activity, with a recent signal favoring No.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management policies. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Oman and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $14,990.

Categories: Iran, Trump, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz

Notable Trades

Profitable serial trader buys No

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% win rate is buying No, aligned with the market's sharp recent decline.

  • This bettor has won 74% of 74 resolved trades and earned nearly $100,000 in profit.
  • The $2,038 No position follows a broad trading history spanning 28 events and 40 markets.
  • No has fallen 18 percentage points over the past day, supporting the trader's direction, though the market remains years from resolution.

$2,038 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

92% winner adds to No position

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 92% win rate is adding $3,500 to an existing No position across a four-market event thesis.

  • This bettor has won 92% of 91 resolved trades and earned about $71,000.
  • They are adding $3,500 to an existing No position while also positioning across four markets in this event.
  • The No entry is 43¢, implying the trader sees roughly a 57% chance the agreement does not happen by September 30.

$5,422 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

92% winner adds to No position

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 92% win rate is adding $3,500 to an existing No position across a four-market event thesis.

  • This bettor has won 92% of 91 resolved trades and earned about $71,000.
  • They are adding $3,500 to an existing No position while also positioning across four markets in this event.
  • The No entry is 43¢, implying the trader sees roughly a 57% chance the agreement does not happen by September 30.

$4,030 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

92% winner adds to No position

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 92% win rate is adding $3,500 to an existing No position across a four-market event thesis.

  • This bettor has won 92% of 91 resolved trades and earned about $71,000.
  • They are adding $3,500 to an existing No position while also positioning across four markets in this event.
  • The No entry is 43¢, implying the trader sees roughly a 57% chance the agreement does not happen by September 30.

$3,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

Top Holders

  1. 0xdf17...97d1 Yes, $30,461 (56% win rate)
  2. 0x85a8...9281 No, $27,870 (93% win rate)
  3. 0xac4a...bf1e Yes, $8,552
  4. 0x35bb...009b Yes, $5,050 (73% win rate)
  5. 0x52f9...e1c7 No, $5,038 (59% win rate)
  6. 0x8792...4174 No, $4,810 (84% win rate)
  7. 0xbf4d...33ed Yes, $4,364 (80% win rate)
  8. 0x524d...4495 No, $3,694 (75% win rate)
  9. 0x67b0...89d3 No, $3,439 (55% win rate)
  10. 0x8833...2393 No, $2,400 (82% win rate)

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Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?

37dIran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?$14,990 tracked4 signalsIranTrumpPeace DealGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz
Yes
39¢
No
61¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management policies. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Oman and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
67¢
52¢
37¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?

3d ago

$2,038 on No at 55¢

55¢61¢6¢

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?

3d ago

$5,422 on No at 43¢

43¢61¢18¢

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?

4d ago

$4,030 on No at 43¢

43¢61¢18¢

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?

5d ago

$3,500 on No at 43¢

43¢61¢18¢

Related Theses