Part of: Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by...?

Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30?

This prediction market tracks whether Israel will officially announce another extension or new agreement extending the April 16, 2026 ceasefire with Hezbollah by 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time on June 30, 2026. The market resolves “Yes” if Israel publicly commits to halting direct military engagement with Hezbollah within the deadline; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $2,175 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal on this market.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,175.

Categories: Israel, Hezbollah, Geopolitics, Middle East, Lebanon

Notable Trades

Proven cross-market bettor

Proven profitable cross-market trader bought Yes on a geopolitics market during a sharp price breakout.

  • This bettor has won 65% of 1,546 resolved trades and is up $258K lifetime.
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  • Yes has jumped 18 points in the past day, and this trader still bought at 87¢.

$2,175 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%

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Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30?

25dIsrael announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by...?$2,175 tracked1 signalIsraelHezbollahGeopoliticsMiddle EastLebanon

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23 and May 15, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify. If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify. A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.

Notable Trades

Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30?

3h ago

$2,175 on Yes at 87¢

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