Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by...?
21 signals across 2 markets · $86,345 tracked · resolves Jun 30, 2026
This event tracks prediction-market odds on whether Israel officially announces another extension of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by the listed deadline. PolySpotter has flagged $1,950 in smart money activity, including a signal from a profitable serial event trader, giving context beyond the market price alone.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- 96% winner leads No cluster
Three wallets bought nearly $9k of No, led by a highly profitable bettor with a 96% win rate and long serial cross-market history.
$8,936Score: 13.1 - 96% win-rate geopolitics sharp
A highly profitable wallet with a 96% resolved win rate is buying No on a geopolitical ceasefire-extension market, backed by a strong serial cross-market track record.
$1,777Wallet win rate: 95%Score: 8.0 - 4-wallet one-sided YES surge
Coordinated Yes buying across four wallets, a 39x volume spike, and strong 24h price momentum make this a notable news-driven flow despite mixed wallet track records.
$21,145Score: 7.8 - Profitable serial macro bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% win rate is adding $6.35k to No on a geopolitics market amid a volume spike and favorable price move.
$6,351Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 7.4 - Profitable serial macro trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large sample is adding $7.7k to No on a geopolitics market, despite recent movement against that side.
$7,733Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 7.3 - 74% serial event bettor
Surface because this is a profitable serial cross-market trader with a large track record taking a clear No position on a geopolitics market.
$2,580Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 6.3 - Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% resolved win rate is buying No on a geopolitics market after recent Yes-side momentum.
$1,382Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 6.3 - Proven cross-market bettor
Proven profitable cross-market trader bought Yes on a geopolitics market during a sharp price breakout.
$2,175Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 6.0 - 88% cross-market sharp
Sharp 88% lifetime winner with extensive cross-market history bought Yes despite the market later trading much lower.
$4,652Wallet win rate: 88%Score: 6.0 - Profitable serial event trader
A high-volume profitable cross-market trader bought No on a geopolitically plausible market, with the current price slightly better than their 71¢ entry.
$1,770Wallet win rate: 68%Score: 5.3
Top wallets in this event
- 0xc96e52…f1f9$18,046 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 76% wins
- 0xf0d5eb…c665$6,862 · 1 market · 1 alert · 91% wins
- 0xa8c63f…44e8$5,042 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 68% wins
- 0xc84f7e…e0c5$4,652 · 1 market · 1 alert · 88% wins
- 0xe73874…df65$4,125 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 64% wins
- 0xdf17f4…97d1$4,013 · 1 market · 1 alert · 54% wins
- 0xb4545b…9b90$3,998 · 1 market · 1 alert · 83% wins
- 0x60a92c…5a71$2,450 · 1 market · 1 alert · 49% wins
- 0xe8c4d6…395d$1,777 · 1 market · 1 alert · 95% wins
- 0x6d9fc3…9790$1,515 · 1 market · 1 alert · 61% wins
FAQs
What are the odds Israel announces a Lebanon ceasefire extension?
The event’s Polymarket odds reflect traders’ current view on whether Israel will officially announce another ceasefire extension with Hezbollah by the deadline. Prices can move quickly as new statements, military developments, or diplomatic reports emerge.
What is the smart money doing on this ceasefire market?
PolySpotter is tracking $1,950 in smart money across this event, with one recent signal tied to a profitable serial event trader. That activity can help identify whether experienced traders are taking a meaningful position before the market resolves.
What outcome does this prediction market cover?
This event covers whether Israel publicly announces another extension of the April 16, 2026 ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah, including extensions of prior agreements or a new qualifying agreement to halt direct military engagement.
When does the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extension market resolve?
The market is scheduled to resolve based on whether a qualifying announcement is made by the specified cutoff, with the event resolving by June 30, 2026.