Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,750.

Notable Trades

Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?

A highly active, profitable cross-market trader with a 71% win rate made a sizable bet on No that was larger than the market’s entire 24-hour volume, signaling meaningful conviction in a thin geopolitics market.

  • This bettor has won 777 of 1,091 resolved trades and is up $177k overall
  • They just put $3,750 into No, bigger than the market’s full $2,164 24-hour volume
  • The trade came at 75¢ in a thin market, showing strong conviction that no strike happens by April 30

$3,750 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%

Top Holders

  1. 0xe738...df65 No, $10,144 (71% win rate)
  2. 0x57ed...fdf0 Yes, $6,795
  3. 0xe467...437f Yes, $4,113
  4. 0xea41...1c98 No, $1,711
  5. 0x34ab...3eb5 Yes, $1,500
  6. 0xeca0...e8f8 No, $1,000 (50% win rate)
  7. 0x75d1...7a5f No, $944
  8. 0x1c85...31d4 Yes, $847
  9. 0x40f1...15f9 Yes, $494 (100% win rate)
  10. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $400 (46% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?

28d$3,750 tracked1 signalGeopoliticsstrikesIsraelMilitary StrikesIranMiddle EastNuclearIsrael x Iran
Yes
26¢
No
75¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?

2h ago

$3,750 on No at 75¢

75¢75¢

Related Theses

Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30? | PolySpotter