Part of: Israel military action against Yemen by...?

Israel military action against Yemen by July 31?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,094.

Categories: Iran, Yemen, Israel x Iran, Israel, Houthis, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Serial macro bettor in thin market

A profitable serial cross-market trader is adding a $1.7k No bet in an extremely thin geopolitical market, though the wallet’s edge is modest and the position is currently marked down.

  • This bettor has traded 73 related markets across 53 events and is up about $71.6k lifetime.
  • The $1.7k No buy made up 85% of the market’s 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a very thin book.
  • Entry at 87¢ implies a high-confidence view that Israel will not take qualifying military action by the deadline.

$1,602 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Serial macro bettor in thin market

A profitable serial cross-market trader is adding a $1.7k No bet in an extremely thin geopolitical market, though the wallet’s edge is modest and the position is currently marked down.

  • This bettor has traded 73 related markets across 53 events and is up about $71.6k lifetime.
  • The $1.7k No buy made up 85% of the market’s 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a very thin book.
  • Entry at 87¢ implies a high-confidence view that Israel will not take qualifying military action by the deadline.

$1,748 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Serial macro bettor in thin market

A profitable serial cross-market trader is adding a $1.7k No bet in an extremely thin geopolitical market, though the wallet’s edge is modest and the position is currently marked down.

  • This bettor has traded 73 related markets across 53 events and is up about $71.6k lifetime.
  • The $1.7k No buy made up 85% of the market’s 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a very thin book.
  • Entry at 87¢ implies a high-confidence view that Israel will not take qualifying military action by the deadline.

$1,744 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Top Holders

  1. 0x8e1c...87c3 Outcome 70977803, $6,571
  2. 0x5c69...51ca Outcome 70977803, $5,003 (20% win rate)
  3. 0xcdbc...f38b Outcome 70977803, $2,995 (38% win rate)
  4. 0xc3db...0f98 Outcome 70977803, $2,815 (44% win rate)
  5. 0x6deb...eb68 Outcome 70977803, $2,750 (93% win rate)
  6. 0xb2b6...48d3 Outcome 70977803, $2,267
  7. 0xc3d2...289e Outcome 70977803, $2,000
  8. 0xfed3...b903 Outcome 70977803, $1,058
  9. 0xd7f1...73cd Outcome 70977803, $970
  10. 0xac4a...bf1e Outcome 70977803, $822

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Israel military action against Yemen by July 31?

ResolvedIsrael military action against Yemen by...?$5,094 tracked3 signalsIranYemenIsrael x IranIsraelHouthisGeopolitics

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Yemen” refers to the territory within the internationally recognized borders of Yemen. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory, it will not qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Yemen and credible reporting.

Price History — “No
102¢
98¢
93¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel military action against Yemen by July 31?

21d ago

$1,602 on No at 87¢

Israel military action against Yemen by July 31?

24d ago

$1,748 on No at 87¢

Israel military action against Yemen by July 31?

26d ago

$1,744 on No at 87¢

Related Theses