Part of: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?

This Polymarket market asks whether the Israel-Iran ceasefire will remain in effect through July 27, 2026, at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. It resolves Yes if no qualifying military action occurs between the two countries before the deadline, and No otherwise. PolySpotter currently tracks $5,659 in smart money and one signal, including a recent sharp bettor move into Yes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $5,659.

Categories: Israel Election, Geopolitics, Iran, Israel, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

Sharp bettor scaling into Yes

Three wallets added $5,659 to Yes, including a proven 79% winner with meaningful edge, making this a credible coordinated conviction signal despite existing positions.

  • A bettor with 79% wins across 112 trades and a 20-point edge is adding to Yes.
  • Three wallets collectively added $5,659 while already holding Yes positions, signaling increased conviction.
  • Yes is priced at 82%, with the market still open until July 27 and a tight 1-point spread.

$5,659 on Yes

Top Holders

  1. 0x0d05...6a81 No, $25,350 (14% win rate)
  2. 0xeb49...693e Yes, $19,482 (90% win rate)
  3. 0xe95d...21d9 No, $17,972
  4. 0x4699...e03c Yes, $16,411 (97% win rate)
  5. 0x9592...a7b8 No, $15,785 (71% win rate)
  6. 0xb8fe...ce76 Yes, $15,431 (56% win rate)
  7. 0xcdbc...f38b No, $13,609 (38% win rate)
  8. 0x9db1...239b No, $13,536
  9. 0x2974...9c23 Yes, $13,398 (90% win rate)
  10. 0x35bb...009b Yes, $12,500 (72% win rate)

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?

ResolvedIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through...?$5,659 tracked1 signalIsrael ElectionGeopoliticsIranIsraelIsrael x Iran
Yes
99¢
No
1¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
101¢
86¢
70¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?

3d ago

$5,659 on Yes at 82¢

82¢99¢17¢