Part of: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?

This Polymarket market asks whether a ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains in effect through November 22, 2026, at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. It resolves No if either country takes a qualifying military action against the other before the deadline; current odds were not included in the provided market data.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $17,863.

Categories: Iran, Israel, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Israel Election

Notable Trades

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

A proven bettor with 156 resolved positions and strong returns is buying Yes while building a substantial position across nine markets in the same event.

  • This bettor has won 76% of 156 resolved positions and earned about $289K on $3.3M invested.
  • They have traded nine markets tied to this event, with about $40.7K in total event positions.
  • The two Yes buys total about $3.5K, at a weighted average entry near 69¢.

$3,495 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Profitable serial event trader

A proven, highly profitable trader placed about $14.4K on Yes across six fills and has extensive positioning across this event, though the market has since fallen below their entry prices.

  • This bettor has won 76% of 156 resolved positions and is up $289K lifetime, with average winning odds of 44¢.
  • They put about $14.4K into Yes across six trades and have positions in nine markets tied to this event.
  • The market is now 58¢, below all six entry prices of 60¢–85¢, so this position has moved against them so far.

$14,367 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Top Holders

  1. 0x524d...4495 — Yes, $3,821 (77% win rate)
  2. 0x1359...092e — Yes, $3,009 (83% win rate)
  3. 0x2c26...a23c — No, $1,702 (100% win rate)
  4. 0x12d6...f2a8 — No, $1,422 (47% win rate)
  5. 0x1cfc...2111 — No, $909
  6. 0x584c...623f — No, $740
  7. 0x391d...def1 — No, $693
  8. 0x05ab...8145 — No, $557 (46% win rate)
  9. 0x7d58...cfcc — Yes, $556 (58% win rate)
  10. 0xa40d...2240 — No, $520

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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?$17,863 tracked2 signalsIranIsraelGeopoliticsIsrael x IranIsrael Election
Yes
63¢
No
38¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes”
65¢
57¢
49¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?

2026-11-01 06:18 UTC

$3,495 on Yes at 69¢

69¢→63¢↓6¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?

2026-11-01 06:11 UTC

$14,367 on Yes at 73¢

73¢→63¢↓10¢

Related Theses