Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?

This prediction market asks whether the Israel-Iran ceasefire will remain in effect through November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. It resolves Yes if the ceasefire continues and No if either country takes a qualifying military action against the other; PolySpotter tracks $10,005 in smart money across one signal.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $39,011.

Categories: Israel Election, Geopolitics, Iran, Israel, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

Three-wallet cluster scaling into Yes

Three wallets added $10,005 to Yes simultaneously, creating a 601x volume spike and reinforcing an existing coordinated position.

  • Three wallets bought Yes together for $10,005, signaling concentrated conviction in the ceasefire continuing.
  • The trades produced a 601x spike versus the market’s historical activity.
  • All three wallets were already holding Yes at 69%, so this represents a coordinated increase rather than a new standalone bet.

$10,005 on Yes

Four-wallet coordinated exit from Yes

Four wallets simultaneously sold $29,000 of Yes amid a 2,064x volume spike, creating a meaningful coordinated signal toward No despite mixed track records.

  • Four wallets sold $29,000 of Yes within seconds, nearly 69% of the market’s $42,260 24-hour volume.
  • The trades coincided with a 2,064x historical volume spike, suggesting unusually concentrated positioning toward No.
  • Several wallets had already closed Yes positions at the same 69¢ price, reinforcing that this was a coordinated exit rather than routine small-scale trading.

$29,006 on No

Top Holders

  1. 0x9592...a7b8 No, $2,000 (76% win rate)
  2. 0xfc2f...10c7 No, $2,000 (76% win rate)
  3. 0xa8c6...44e8 Yes, $1,800 (67% win rate)
  4. 0x0845...6b6f Yes, $1,596 (70% win rate)
  5. 0xac4a...bf1e No, $1,044
  6. 0xb24c...eefe Yes, $1,000 (76% win rate)
  7. 0x0826...0b32 Yes, $1,000 (59% win rate)
  8. 0xd950...ad1b Yes, $973 (47% win rate)
  9. 0xff7c...b233 No, $785 (54% win rate)
  10. 0x391d...def1 No, $735

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?

79d$39,011 tracked2 signalsIsrael ElectionGeopoliticsIranIsraelIsrael x Iran
Yes
66¢
No
34¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
71¢
66¢
61¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?

2d ago

$10,005 on Yes at 69¢

69¢66¢3¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?

2d ago

$29,006 on No at 31¢

31¢34¢3¢