Part of: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

10 smart money signals detected, totaling $76,203.

Categories: Iran, Israel, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Israel Election

Notable Trades

Proven sharp re-entering Yes

A highly profitable trader with 9,502 resolved bets and a reported 18-point edge has re-entered Yes at 90¢, supported by extensive cross-market activity.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 9,502 resolved bets and earned about $1.52 million.
  • They bought Yes again at 90¢ after previously holding a Yes position.
  • The trader has bet across 1,250 events, with a reported 18-point edge over implied odds.

$2,479 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Funded cluster with broad event positioning

A profitable, highly active trader is part of a seven-wallet funded cluster and has substantial positioning across 15 related markets, while selling No converts to a Yes buy.

  • Seven wallets sharing a funder are tied to $1,350 of activity on this market.
  • This trader is up $194,515 across 285 resolved bets and has positioned across 15 related markets.
  • Selling No at 15¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at about 85¢.

$1,350 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Proven 80% winner, serial cross-market trader

A highly experienced, profitable bettor with an 80% win rate and substantial edge is taking a fresh $1,740 position, and is a serial trader across 37 events.

  • This bettor has won 80% of 1,270 resolved trades and is up $26,548 overall.
  • They placed a fresh $1,740 bet on Yes and have traded across 37 events.
  • The market is already at 86–87% Yes, so the entry is expensive despite the bettor’s strong record.

$1,740 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%

Proven bettor shifting toward Yes

A proven bettor with an 83% record and substantial historical edge sold No, equivalent to buying Yes, amid a 28.5x volume spike, though the trade may partly reduce an existing No position.

  • This bettor has won 67 of 81 resolved positions and is up $89,311 overall.
  • They sold No at 16¢, equivalent to buying Yes at 84¢, as market volume surged to 28.5 times its historical average.
  • The wallet already holds a much larger No position, so this trade may be a partial reduction rather than a full reversal.

$1,122 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Serial trader adding to event position

A highly active bettor with an 88% record added $9,210 to Yes amid a 48.5x volume spike and substantial positioning across 13 related markets.

  • The bettor has 226 resolved trades, an 88% win rate, and is up about $50,000 overall.
  • They have positioned across 13 markets tied to this event, with about $191,000 in related trades.
  • This $9,210 addition came during a 48.5x volume spike; the wallet already held Yes shares.

$9,210 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

Serial trader scales into Yes

A highly active serial cross-market trader with a 79% win rate is adding $6.4K to an existing Yes position, dominating daily volume despite limited demonstrated edge at current odds.

  • This bettor has won 79% of 693 resolved trades across 57 events.
  • The $6,432 purchase adds to an existing Yes position and represents roughly 70% of daily market volume.
  • The trader is positioning across three markets in the same Israel-Iran event, while Yes has risen 16.5% over the past week.

$4,620 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

Four-wallet Yes cluster with repeat traders

Four wallets added $44.6K to Yes during a 105x volume spike, with repeat cross-market trading history providing additional support.

  • Four wallets put $44,639 on Yes, including three adding to existing Yes positions.
  • Trading volume was 105x its historical average, and Yes has risen 4 points over the past day.
  • A repeat cross-market trader has bet across 54 events and 96 markets, with an 88% win rate.

$44,639 on Yes

7-wallet funded ceasefire cluster

Seven commonly funded wallets and substantial same-event cross-market positioning make this a notable coordinated Yes thesis, despite only moderate historical profitability.

  • Seven wallets sharing a funder are aligned on this market, indicating coordinated conviction despite the modest $1,611 trade size.
  • The trader has positioned across 14 markets in the same event, totaling $193,453, suggesting a broad event-level thesis rather than an isolated bet.
  • This wallet has won 67% of 219 resolved trades and is buying Yes at 76¢, with entry available below the 86¢ copy ceiling.

$1,611 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Serial trader scales into Yes

A highly active serial cross-market trader with a 79% win rate is adding $6.4K to an existing Yes position, dominating daily volume despite limited demonstrated edge at current odds.

  • This bettor has won 79% of 693 resolved trades across 57 events.
  • The $6,432 purchase adds to an existing Yes position and represents roughly 70% of daily market volume.
  • The trader is positioning across three markets in the same Israel-Iran event, while Yes has risen 16.5% over the past week.

$6,432 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

91% winner scaling into Yes

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 91% win rate is adding to an existing Yes position amid strong event-level conviction.

  • This bettor has won 91% of 170 resolved trades and is up $42,476.
  • The wallet has traded 13 markets in this Israel-Iran event, with $139,664 in total positioning.
  • This $3,000 purchase adds to an existing Yes position, signaling continued conviction at 73¢.

$3,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

Top Holders

  1. 0x7447...a16d — No, $133,308 (53% win rate)
  2. 0x6575...b198 — No, $50,000 (75% win rate)
  3. 0xf7b7...e490 — No, $46,100 (100% win rate)
  4. 0x1e1f...c855 — No, $30,000 (59% win rate)
  5. 0x9592...a7b8 — No, $28,503 (76% win rate)
  6. 0xe4f5...9663 — No, $25,000 (4% win rate)
  7. 0xf958...238c — No, $15,000
  8. 0xda76...0aa2 — No, $14,810 (98% win rate)
  9. 0x2ffe...ab99 — No, $14,046 (80% win rate)
  10. 0x5a21...9318 — No, $13,867 (65% win rate)

Related Theses

France routs England in high-scoring match

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Iran keeps airspace open

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Spurs win by three

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Spain routs in goalfest

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Top favorites to win World Cup

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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?$76,203 tracked10 signalsIranIsraelGeopoliticsIsrael x IranIsrael Election
Yes
100¢
No
0¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes”
102¢
97¢
92¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-26 11:22 UTC

$2,479 on Yes at 90¢

90¢→100¢↑10¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-14 20:37 UTC

$1,350 on Yes at 85¢

85¢→100¢↑15¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-10 08:53 UTC

$1,740 on Yes at 87¢

87¢→100¢↑13¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-08 16:37 UTC

$1,122 on Yes at 84¢

84¢→100¢↑16¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-05 10:06 UTC

$9,210 on Yes at 85¢

85¢→100¢↑15¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-09-07 23:40 UTC

$4,620 on Yes at 74¢

74¢→100¢↑26¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-10-05 10:00 UTC

$44,639 on Yes at 85¢

85¢→100¢↑15¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-09-07 10:36 UTC

$1,611 on Yes at 76¢

76¢→100¢↑24¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-08-16 22:17 UTC

$6,432 on Yes at 74¢

74¢→100¢↑26¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

2026-08-15 21:13 UTC

$3,000 on Yes at 73¢

73¢→100¢↑27¢

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France routs England in high-scoring match
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France vs. England: 1st Half O…France vs. England: France O/U…France vs. England: O/U 1.5
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Spurs win by three
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Belgium wins three one
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