Part of: Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?

Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count. A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing. Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify. Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,352.

Categories: Iran, Israel x Iran, Geopolitics, Regional Spillover, Israel, Hezbollah, IDF, Lebanon

Notable Trades

94% win-rate sharp buyer

A proven sharp wallet with a 94% win rate bought No at 63¢ in a geopolitics market that has already moved in its favor to 57¢.

This bettor wins 94% of their trades across 670 resolved markets and is up $72.5k
They bought No at 63¢ and the market is now 57¢, so the trade is already moving their way
This is a geopolitics market with moderate liquidity, where a strong track record matters more than raw bet size

$1,600 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Profitable serial event trader

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with 807 resolved bets and nearly $472k in profit bought into a geopolitics market during a sharp upward move, suggesting a thesis worth tracking despite paying above current price.

This bettor has 807 resolved trades, wins 61% of them, and is up $471k overall.
They trade across many related markets — 87 events and 174 markets — which suggests a repeatable event-driven process.
They bought Yes during a 25-point price surge, showing conviction on a fast-moving geopolitical market.

$1,875 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 60%

Profitable serial event trader

A highly active and profitable cross-market trader bought Yes at 50¢ before this market moved to 64%, suggesting an informed directional thesis with strong immediate markout.

This bettor has made 807 resolved bets, wins 61% of them, and is up about $472k overall
They bought Yes at 50¢ and the market is now 64¢, a strong early gain on this position
The bet was large relative to recent market activity, with roughly $2.9k placed into a market doing about $5.8k in 24-hour volume

$2,877 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 60%