What does this Litani River prediction market measure?

It measures whether Israeli military personnel, such as IDF or other official Israeli military units, will be confirmed to have crossed the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026.

How does this market resolve to Yes?

The market resolves to Yes if credible confirmation shows official Israeli military personnel crossed the Litani River before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no such crossing is confirmed by the deadline, it resolves to No.

Do intelligence personnel or unofficial actors count?

No. The rules specify that intelligence or other non-military personnel do not count. The crossing must involve official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel.

Why are traders following this Polymarket?

Traders are using it as a real-time indicator of escalation risk in the Israel-Hezbollah-Lebanon theater. A crossing of the Litani River would be seen as a major military development with broader regional implications.

When does the Israeli forces and Litani River market end?

This prediction market resolves based on events occurring by June 30, 2026, with the cutoff at 11:59 PM ET that day.

Part of: Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?

Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?

This Polymarket tracks whether Israeli military personnel will cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026. The market resolves Yes only if official Israeli military forces are confirmed to have crossed the river before the deadline; otherwise it resolves No. Traders watching Israel, Hezbollah, Lebanon, and wider regional spillover use this market to gauge the perceived risk of escalation.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,352.

Categories: Iran, Israel x Iran, Geopolitics, Regional Spillover, Israel, Hezbollah, IDF, Lebanon

Notable Trades

94% win-rate sharp buyer

A proven sharp wallet with a 94% win rate bought No at 63¢ in a geopolitics market that has already moved in its favor to 57¢.

This bettor wins 94% of their trades across 670 resolved markets and is up $72.5k
They bought No at 63¢ and the market is now 57¢, so the trade is already moving their way
This is a geopolitics market with moderate liquidity, where a strong track record matters more than raw bet size

$1,600 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Profitable serial event trader

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with 807 resolved bets and nearly $472k in profit bought into a geopolitics market during a sharp upward move, suggesting a thesis worth tracking despite paying above current price.

This bettor has 807 resolved trades, wins 61% of them, and is up $471k overall.
They trade across many related markets — 87 events and 174 markets — which suggests a repeatable event-driven process.
They bought Yes during a 25-point price surge, showing conviction on a fast-moving geopolitical market.

$1,875 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 58%

Profitable serial event trader

A highly active and profitable cross-market trader bought Yes at 50¢ before this market moved to 64%, suggesting an informed directional thesis with strong immediate markout.

This bettor has made 807 resolved bets, wins 61% of them, and is up about $472k overall
They bought Yes at 50¢ and the market is now 64¢, a strong early gain on this position
The bet was large relative to recent market activity, with roughly $2.9k placed into a market doing about $5.8k in 24-hour volume

$2,877 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 58%

Top Holders

0x52b7...4597 — Outcome 61105898, $13,282 (64% win rate)
0x4e42...49ed — Outcome 61105898, $6,189 (60% win rate)
0xa022...77f8 — Outcome 61105898, $5,903 (67% win rate)
0x7a61...af24 — Outcome 61105898, $3,679
0xf1f9...1245 — Outcome 61105898, $2,796 (56% win rate)
0xf719...b568 — Outcome 61105898, $2,600
0x5fdf...28a2 — Outcome 61105898, $2,558 (94% win rate)
0x9ca1...13b5 — Outcome 61105898, $2,339 (58% win rate)
0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 61105898, $2,000 (42% win rate)
0x582a...7bb2 — Outcome 61105898, $2,000

Related Theses

MicroStrategy will hold Bitcoin

Covers 1 related market

Solana falls to $80

Covers 1 related market

Israel keeps airspace open

Covers 1 related market

Covers 5 related markets

Ethereum stays above $2,000

Covers 1 related market

Covers 4 related markets

Iran closes its airspace

Covers 1 related market

Starmer exits before July 2026

Covers 1 related market

NVIDIA hits $248 in May

Covers 1 related market

Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?

38dIsraeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?$6,352 tracked3 signalsIranIsrael x IranGeopoliticsRegional SpilloverIsraelHezbollahIDFLebanon

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count. A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing. Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify. Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.