What does the Kash Patel out by December 31 prediction market ask?

The market asks whether Kash Patel will cease to be the FBI Director for any period by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

What would make this Kash Patel Polymarket resolve to Yes?

It resolves to “Yes” if Patel resigns or is removed from the FBI directorship. An official announcement before the end date triggers immediate resolution, even if the change takes effect later.

What would make the market resolve to No?

The market resolves to “No” if Patel remains FBI Director continuously through the stated deadline without an announced resignation or removal.

When does the Kash Patel FBI prediction market resolve?

The scheduled end date is December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time, unless an earlier qualifying announcement causes immediate resolution.

What is the resolution source for this market?

Resolution is based on official information from the Trump administration, according to the market’s stated rules.

Part of: Kash Patel out by...?

Kash Patel out by December 31?

This prediction market tracks whether Kash Patel will cease serving as FBI Director for any period by December 31, 2026. An announced resignation or removal resolves the market to “Yes” immediately, with official Trump administration information used for resolution; the market currently shows $1,483 in tracked smart money across one signal.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,330.

Categories: Trump, Politics, Trump Cabinet, 2026 Winter Games

Notable Trades

Serial trader reverses large FBI bet

A proven serial trader exited a large losing Yes position, driving a sharp repricing toward No in a thin market, though this is position management rather than fresh conviction.

This bettor has won 70% of 514 resolved trades and is up nearly $112,000.
The wallet sold $1,483 of Yes while already holding a $16,924 Yes position, signaling a major retreat from that thesis.
The sale represented nearly 49 times the reported 24-hour volume and helped push Yes down 33% beyond its prior range.

$1,483 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

14-wallet sharp cluster

A highly profitable serial political trader from a 14-wallet funded cluster made a nearly $4.8k buy that was over 60% of the market’s 24h volume, signaling coordinated conviction despite a modest pullback.

This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up about $1.26M lifetime.
14 wallets tied to the same funder have shown up together before, pointing to coordinated conviction.
This $4.8k buy was 63% of the market’s 24-hour volume, so it stood out in a relatively thin market.

$4,847 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%