Kash Patel out by...?
4 signals across 2 markets · $10,251 tracked · resolves Jan 1, 2027
This event tracks prediction-market odds on whether Kash Patel will cease to be Director of the FBI by the listed deadlines, including June 30 and December 31. PolySpotter is monitoring smart-money activity across the event, with $8,768 tracked and recent signals including a 14-wallet sharp cluster and a 79% win-rate political bettor.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- 14-wallet sharp cluster
A highly profitable serial political trader from a 14-wallet funded cluster made a nearly $4.8k buy that was over 60% of the market’s 24h volume, signaling coordinated conviction despite a modest pullback.
$4,847Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 12.0 - Kash Patel out by June 30?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
$1,921Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 6.0 - Serial trader reverses large FBI bet
A proven serial trader exited a large losing Yes position, driving a sharp repricing toward No in a thin market, though this is position management rather than fresh conviction.
$1,483Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 4.3 - 79% win-rate political bettor
A profitable sharp bettor with a 79% win rate bought into a major breakout on a political market, suggesting conviction despite paying a premium above the current price.
$2,000Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x000d25…758e$4,847 · 1 market · 1 alert · 86% wins
- 0x8633c1…a08d$3,404 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 70% wins
- 0xdd9cb0…2a50$2,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 64% wins
FAQs
What are the Kash Patel out odds on Polymarket?
The event includes separate Polymarket markets for whether Kash Patel is out as FBI Director by June 30 and by December 31. PolySpotter tracks the live market pricing and smart-money activity across both deadlines.
What outcomes are being traded in this event?
Traders are betting Yes or No on whether Kash Patel ceases to be FBI Director by each listed date. An announced resignation or removal before the deadline can resolve the relevant market to Yes, even if the departure takes effect later.
What is the smart money doing on Kash Patel out markets?
PolySpotter has tracked $8,768 in smart-money activity and 3 signals across this event. Recent alerts include a 14-wallet sharp cluster and activity from a political bettor with a 79% win rate.
When does the Kash Patel out market resolve?
Each child market resolves based on its own deadline, such as June 30 or December 31 at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is based on official information from the Trump administration or other reliable official sources.
Why follow the event page instead of one market?
The hub page lets you compare the full set of deadlines in one place, so you can see how traders price both the near-term and year-end chances of Patel leaving the FBI role.