What is the Kash Patel out by June 30 prediction market about?

This market covers whether Kash Patel stops being Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period before the listed deadline. Traders are pricing the chance of a resignation, removal, or other departure by June 30, 2026.

When does the Kash Patel Polymarket resolve?

The market is scheduled around the June 30, 2026 deadline, with the rules specifying 11:59 PM ET. If Patel remains FBI Director through the deadline, the market resolves to “No.”

What would make this market resolve to Yes?

It resolves “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be FBI Director before the deadline. It also resolves “Yes” immediately if an official resignation or removal is announced before the end date, even if the effective date is later.

What is the resolution source for this market?

The market uses official information from the Trump administration and related official sources to determine whether Patel has resigned, been removed, or otherwise ceased serving as FBI Director.

How much smart money is PolySpotter tracking on this market?

PolySpotter is tracking $1,921 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market, including activity from a political bettor with a reported 79% win rate.

Part of: Kash Patel out by...?

Kash Patel out by June 30?

This prediction market asks whether Kash Patel will cease to be Director of the FBI at any point by June 30, 2026. It resolves “Yes” if an official resignation or removal is announced before the deadline, even if the departure takes effect later; PolySpotter currently tracks $1,921 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal on this market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,921.

Categories: Trump, Politics, 2026 Winter Games

Notable Trades

Kash Patel out by June 30?

LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.

LLM evaluation inconclusive

$1,921 | Wallet win rate: 71%

79% win-rate political bettor

A profitable sharp bettor with a 79% win rate bought into a major breakout on a political market, suggesting conviction despite paying a premium above the current price.

This bettor wins 79% of their resolved trades and is up about $18.9k on $53k invested
They bought after this market broke far above its old range, with Yes jumping roughly 29 points beyond prior highs
A 73¢ entry implies they see the current political risk as still underpriced despite the recent surge

$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%