Part of: Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
This prediction market asks whether Lee Jae-myung, Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, will be arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026. It resolves “Yes” if he is taken into custody or voluntarily surrenders in response to an arrest warrant before the deadline; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $1,128 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal on this South Korea politics market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,732.
Categories: South Korea, World, Politics
Notable Trades
94% winner buying contrarian NO
Sharp wallet override: a bettor with a 94% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No against a major Yes price surge.
- This bettor wins 94% of resolved bets and is up $1.4K lifetime.
- They bought No after Yes jumped about 23 points in a day, taking the other side of the market move.
- This is a fresh re-entry after closing an earlier No position, suggesting renewed conviction.
$1,128 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
94% winner buys dip
Sharp wallet override: a 94% winner with positive lifetime P&L is re-entering No after the market moved sharply toward Yes.
- This bettor has won 31 of 33 resolved bets and is up $1,636 lifetime.
- They are buying No at 77¢ after Yes jumped about 18 points in the past day.
- The wallet previously traded No on this market and is now re-entering the same side.
$1,350 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
86% serial cross-market winner
Surfaced because a highly proven serial cross-market trader with an 86% record and positive lifetime P&L bought No despite a sharp market move toward Yes.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $87.7K lifetime.
- They are a very active cross-market trader, with nearly $2.0M deployed across 206 markets.
- They bought No at 78¢ while the market was surging the other way, suggesting a contrarian view with conviction.
$4,680 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
364x volume surge
A sudden 364x volume spike with a 30-point move in a plausible political/legal market makes this Yes flow worth watching despite no wallet track record.
- A normally quiet political market saw 364x its usual volume.
- Yes moved about 30 points in a day, matching this $5.6k buy direction.
- The order book is thin, so a $5.6k entry is meaningful relative to $12k liquidity.
$5,575 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0x44bb...c186 — Yes, $183,438
- 0x098c...1c67 — No, $45,465 (44% win rate)
- 0xe231...4e3e — No, $43,062
- 0xe154...0b7f — No, $13,467
- 0x4842...b7d4 — No, $11,265
- 0x8e8c...6657 — No, $9,876 (65% win rate)
- 0x5ecd...0787 — No, $9,500 (40% win rate)
- 0xaf39...3101 — No, $8,065 (86% win rate)
- 0x7a4c...d411 — No, $5,293
- 0x967d...0c38 — No, $4,208 (94% win rate)
Related Theses
Lee Jae-myung avoids arrest
Covers 1 related market
Kim Boo-kyum wins Daegu mayoral race
Covers 2 related markets
