Part of: Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $21,048.
Categories: putin, Russia, Ukraine, Politics, zelensky, zelenskyy, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
Profitable serial cross-market trader
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is taking a bearish position, supported by a 75% win rate across 135 resolved bets.
- This trader has won 75% of 135 resolved bets and is up $239,248.
- They are betting against Yes with a $1,241 position; the equivalent entry is No at 70¢.
- The wallet has traded across 67 events, making this part of a broader cross-market pattern.
$1,241 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Proven 82% winner buys Yes
A proven trader with 82% wins across 109 resolved positions is putting $2,433 on Yes at 46¢ in a major geopolitical market.
- This bettor has won 89 of 109 resolved positions and is up $187,921.
- They placed a $2,433 Yes bet at 46¢ on whether peace talks occur by October 31, 2026.
- The wallet has traded across 54 events, suggesting a sustained cross-market track record.
$1,050 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
Proven 82% winner buys Yes
A proven trader with 82% wins across 109 resolved positions is putting $2,433 on Yes at 46¢ in a major geopolitical market.
- This bettor has won 89 of 109 resolved positions and is up $187,921.
- They placed a $2,433 Yes bet at 46¢ on whether peace talks occur by October 31, 2026.
- The wallet has traded across 54 events, suggesting a sustained cross-market track record.
$2,433 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
Three-wallet coordinated Yes move
Three wallets collectively took $16,324 of Yes exposure, alongside a 104.7x volume spike, making the coordinated move notable despite mixed wallet records.
- Three wallets moved together, taking $16,324 of Yes exposure in a market with $36,608 liquidity.
- Their trades coincided with a reported 104.7x volume spike; Yes was priced around 47¢ at entry.
- The wallets’ limited and mixed track records offer little independent confirmation of the thesis.
$16,324 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0x3eed...cb2a — No, $16,538 (55% win rate)
- 0x7319...0299 — Yes, $14,126 (27% win rate)
- 0x8a8b...375c — No, $10,479 (42% win rate)
- 0xbf96...9942 — No, $10,077 (80% win rate)
- 0xe234...304a — Yes, $9,672 (66% win rate)
- 0x0a7a...df1b — Yes, $8,112
- 0xe154...0b7f — Yes, $8,000 (10% win rate)
- 0x1b60...a55b — Yes, $7,282 (85% win rate)
- 0xa6e6...d5b8 — No, $5,719 (80% win rate)
- 0x5b07...de95 — No, $5,492 (68% win rate)
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