Part of: S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 6?
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 6?
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on May 6 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on May 6 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official open/close price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If the previous trading day has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Open/Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,889.
Categories: SPX, Up or Down, Daily, Indicies, Finance, Rewards Automation 500, 4.5, 50
Notable Trades
Profitable macro serial trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% resolved win rate is buying SPX Up at 82¢ ahead of the open.
- This bettor wins 74% of resolved trades and is up $16.6k lifetime.
- They have traded 38 related event markets with $103k total volume, suggesting a repeatable macro strategy.
- Entry at 82¢ is a high-conviction bet that SPX opens above the prior close.
$1,785 on Up | Wallet win rate: 73%
Profitable serial macro trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader put a $3.1k bet on SPX opening Up in a relatively quiet market, and the price has already moved from 74¢ to 80¢.
- This bettor has a long track record: 505 resolved trades, 64% wins, and $55k in profit.
- They have traded across 28 events with $302k deployed, suggesting a repeat macro strategy rather than a one-off bet.
- The $3.1k buy was large for this market and moved from 74¢ entry to about 80¢ now.
$3,104 on Up | Wallet win rate: 58%
Related Theses
Iran deal timing arbitrage
Covers 5 related markets
