Part of: S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 6?

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 6?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,889.

Categories: SPX, Up or Down, Daily, Indicies, Finance, Rewards Automation 500, 4.5, 50

Notable Trades

Profitable macro serial trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% resolved win rate is buying SPX Up at 82¢ ahead of the open.

  • This bettor wins 74% of resolved trades and is up $16.6k lifetime.
  • They have traded 38 related event markets with $103k total volume, suggesting a repeatable macro strategy.
  • Entry at 82¢ is a high-conviction bet that SPX opens above the prior close.

$1,785 on Up | Wallet win rate: 73%

Profitable serial macro trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader put a $3.1k bet on SPX opening Up in a relatively quiet market, and the price has already moved from 74¢ to 80¢.

  • This bettor has a long track record: 505 resolved trades, 64% wins, and $55k in profit.
  • They have traded across 28 events with $302k deployed, suggesting a repeat macro strategy rather than a one-off bet.
  • The $3.1k buy was large for this market and moved from 74¢ entry to about 80¢ now.

$3,104 on Up | Wallet win rate: 59%

Top Holders

  1. 0x7096...5907 Outcome 70411323, $1,000
  2. 0x5e73...6697 Outcome 70411323, $867 (68% win rate)
  3. 0xaff2...9070 Outcome 70411323, $665
  4. 0x6885...973e Outcome 70411323, $225
  5. 0xaee1...77fc Outcome 70411323, $200
  6. 0x736e...682c Outcome 70411323, $120
  7. 0x3329...43a6 Outcome 70411323, $100
  8. 0x6d66...af0d Outcome 70411323, $60 (62% win rate)
  9. 0xe0f3...9fea Outcome 70411323, $55
  10. 0xa3e2...fdf8 Outcome 70411323, $54

Related Theses

Iran deal timing arbitrage

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S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 6?

ResolvedS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 6?$4,889 tracked2 signalsSPXUp or DownDailyIndiciesFinanceHide From NewRewards Automation 500, 4.5, 50

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on May 6 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on May 6 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official open/close price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If the previous trading day has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Open/Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Notable Trades

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 6?

56d ago

$1,785 on Up at 82¢

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 6?

57d ago

$3,104 on Up at 74¢

Related Theses