Part of: S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14?
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14?
This Polymarket market predicts whether the S&P 500 Index (SPX) will close higher or lower on Thursday, May 14, 2026 compared with the most recent prior trading day. It resolves based on the official SPX closing price at the end of the May 14 trading session. PolySpotter is tracking $4,000 in smart money activity, including 1 signal from a 96% win-rate macro trader.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Thursday, May 14, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Thursday, May 14, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $7,249.
Categories: SPX, Up or Down, Daily, Indicies, Finance, Daily-Close, Rewards Automation 500, 4.5, 50
Notable Trades
96% serial macro bettor
Surfacing because this is a highly proven serial cross-market trader with a 96% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L buying SPX Up before the close.
- This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades and is up $34k lifetime.
- They have traded across 44 events and 53 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- They bought Up at 90¢ with SPX odds already moving sharply higher today.
$3,249 on Up | Wallet win rate: 96%
96% win-rate macro trader
Highly proven serial cross-market trader with a 96% historical win rate bought Up near 90¢ while the market broke sharply higher.
- This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades, with 734 past results and $34K in lifetime profit.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 43 events and over $314K in similar positioning.
- Their $4K buy helped confirm a sharp move higher, with Up up 19 points today and breaking past its prior range.
$4,000 on Up | Wallet win rate: 96%
Top Holders
- 0xbc64...d089 — Down, $18,391
- 0x4699...e03c — Up, $12,451 (96% win rate)
- 0x3b34...cca8 — Up, $9,317 (93% win rate)
- 0x969f...4d55 — Up, $4,341 (50% win rate)
- 0xdefe...17f4 — Up, $3,420 (63% win rate)
- 0x8188...0667 — Down, $3,100 (56% win rate)
- 0xb5ad...fd50 — Up, $3,000
- 0x9f3c...d862 — Down, $2,157 (50% win rate)
- 0x1897...7438 — Up, $1,512 (68% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — Down, $1,507 (47% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran keeps airspace open
Covers 1 related market
Como wins on May 10
Covers 1 related market
Mallorca will not win
Covers 1 related market
S&P rises on May 14
Covers 1 related market
