Part of: SBF released from custody in 2026?
SBF released from custody in 2026?
This Polymarket tracks whether Sam Bankman-Fried, also known as SBF, will be released from custody at any point during 2026. Traders use it to price the chances of an early release, pardon, or other legal development before the market resolves on December 31, 2026. PolySpotter currently tracks $11,173 in smart money activity across 1 signal on this market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Sam Bankman-Fried is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Sam Bankman-Fried is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Sam Bankman-Fried to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $11,173.
Categories: ftx, Sam Bankman-Fried, Trump, Politics, Crypto, Culture
Notable Trades
SBF released from custody in 2026?
A brand-new wallet has repeatedly deployed large size and just bought over $11k of No in a market with only $314 of 24h volume, a strong conviction signal despite no track record yet.
- An 18-hour-old wallet has already triggered 7 large-bet alerts, with $66k flagged in total
- This $11.2k buy was 35x the market's entire 24h volume, showing unusual conviction in a quiet market
- They paid 89¢ for No, backing the view that SBF stays in custody through 2026
$11,173 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0xc8c2...2d1c — Yes, $18,607
- 0x2202...8787 — No, $17,049 (100% win rate)
- 0xcce2...d58b — No, $10,000
- 0x4337...8882 — No, $6,259 (77% win rate)
- 0x6dd6...f5f4 — No, $5,641 (71% win rate)
- 0x9d84...1344 — Yes, $4,914 (39% win rate)
- 0x4ef8...1d13 — Yes, $4,091
- 0xd09f...f9e6 — Yes, $3,845
- 0x3537...56ea — No, $3,000
- 0xa74c...87ba — Yes, $2,500