Part of: FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?

Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?

This prediction market asks whether the FDA will approve intismeran autogene—also known as mRNA-4157 or V940—for any indication by December 31, 2027. The therapy, developed by Moderna and Merck and studied in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial, resolves Yes only if FDA approval is granted before the deadline; otherwise, it resolves No.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants approval of intismeran autogene for any indication by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), also known as mRNA-4157 and V940, together with any brand, trade, or nonproprietary name later assigned to that product, as well as any renamed or modified version that the relevant company or the FDA identify as the same product or a direct continuation of the V940/mRNA-4157 program. Differences in neoantigen composition between patients will not affect resolution. Changes to the product's formulation will not affect resolution, provided the FDA approves the product described above. Approval as part of a combination regimen will qualify. Approval for a narrower population than the one studied in INTerpath-001 will qualify. Approval for an indication other than melanoma will also qualify. Both standard and accelerated approval will qualify. An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application The following constitute qualifying approvals: Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs The following do not constitute qualifying approvals: Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration FDA requests for additional information or studies Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) dates Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only Approval only for export or for use outside the United States Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form If the listed drug is approved before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval. Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

9 smart money signals detected, totaling $16,235.

Categories: FDA, Tech, Cancer, Moderna, Science, vaccine

Notable Trades

Profitable serial cross-market trader

A highly active cross-market trader with substantial lifetime profit has opened a No position at 37¢, though their overall win rate does not clearly beat the odds they typically pay.

  • This trader is up $826,583 across 1,089 resolved bets and has traded across 57 events.
  • They bought No at 37¢ after closing a Yes position; No has since risen to 46¢.

$1,204 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Profitable serial cross-market trader

A highly active cross-market trader with substantial lifetime profit has opened a No position at 37¢, though their overall win rate does not clearly beat the odds they typically pay.

  • This trader is up $826,583 across 1,089 resolved bets and has traded across 57 events.
  • They bought No at 37¢ after closing a Yes position; No has since risen to 46¢.

$1,287 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Serial cross-market winner backs No

A highly experienced, strongly profitable cross-market trader bought No at 35¢, and the position is now marked near 50¢ in a thin market.

  • This bettor has an 82% win rate across 1,085 resolved bets and is up about $804,000.
  • They put $3,101 on No at 35¢; No is now priced around 50¢.
  • The bet is sizable relative to the market’s $7,495 liquidity, adding weight to the position.

$1,167 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Serial cross-market winner backs No

A highly experienced, strongly profitable cross-market trader bought No at 35¢, and the position is now marked near 50¢ in a thin market.

  • This bettor has an 82% win rate across 1,085 resolved bets and is up about $804,000.
  • They put $3,101 on No at 35¢; No is now priced around 50¢.
  • The bet is sizable relative to the market’s $7,495 liquidity, adding weight to the position.

$2,153 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Serial cross-market winner backs No

A highly experienced, strongly profitable cross-market trader bought No at 35¢, and the position is now marked near 50¢ in a thin market.

  • This bettor has an 82% win rate across 1,085 resolved bets and is up about $804,000.
  • They put $3,101 on No at 35¢; No is now priced around 50¢.
  • The bet is sizable relative to the market’s $7,495 liquidity, adding weight to the position.

$3,101 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Serial sharp exits Yes

A proven, serial cross-market bettor made a sizable bearish move in a thin market, though the trade appears to be closing an existing Yes position rather than opening a fresh one.

  • This bettor has won 78% of 982 resolved trades and is up $48,644 lifetime.
  • The $2,727 sale was more than 150% of the market’s 24-hour volume, making it a meaningful bearish signal in a thin market.
  • The position was previously bought around 72¢ and sold near 68¢, suggesting the trader no longer favors Yes despite the 68% market price.

$1,110 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

Sharp bettor scales into No

A historically profitable serial cross-market bettor added $2,298 to No at roughly 35¢ in a thin market, reinforcing an existing position.

  • This bettor has won 78% of 982 resolved trades and earned about $48,600 in profit.
  • They added $2,298 to No around 34–37¢, more than four times the market’s reported 24-hour volume.
  • The wallet already held $8,634 of No, showing increased conviction rather than a one-off entry.

$2,298 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

Serial sharp exits Yes

A proven, serial cross-market bettor made a sizable bearish move in a thin market, though the trade appears to be closing an existing Yes position rather than opening a fresh one.

  • This bettor has won 78% of 982 resolved trades and is up $48,644 lifetime.
  • The $2,727 sale was more than 150% of the market’s 24-hour volume, making it a meaningful bearish signal in a thin market.
  • The position was previously bought around 72¢ and sold near 68¢, suggesting the trader no longer favors Yes despite the 68% market price.

$1,188 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

Serial sharp exits Yes

A proven, serial cross-market bettor made a sizable bearish move in a thin market, though the trade appears to be closing an existing Yes position rather than opening a fresh one.

  • This bettor has won 78% of 982 resolved trades and is up $48,644 lifetime.
  • The $2,727 sale was more than 150% of the market’s 24-hour volume, making it a meaningful bearish signal in a thin market.
  • The position was previously bought around 72¢ and sold near 68¢, suggesting the trader no longer favors Yes despite the 68% market price.

$2,727 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

Top Holders

  1. 0x1e1f...c855 — Yes, $15,000 (59% win rate)
  2. 0x49f2...d7b4 — No, $4,984 (56% win rate)
  3. 0x5188...c804 — No, $4,178 (82% win rate)
  4. 0xa82b...5220 — Yes, $1,000 (46% win rate)
  5. 0xb1ca...1705 — No, $900 (49% win rate)
  6. 0xbad2...5296 — No, $882 (50% win rate)
  7. 0x4e84...ef69 — No, $723
  8. 0x1491...fd70 — No, $600
  9. 0x4b8a...f4a4 — No, $579
  10. 0xd96e...3f77 — No, $408

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Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?

FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?$16,235 tracked9 signalsFDATechCancerModernaSciencevaccine
Yes
67¢
No
33¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants approval of intismeran autogene for any indication by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), also known as mRNA-4157 and V940, together with any brand, trade, or nonproprietary name later assigned to that product, as well as any renamed or modified version that the relevant company or the FDA identify as the same product or a direct continuation of the V940/mRNA-4157 program. Differences in neoantigen composition between patients will not affect resolution. Changes to the product's formulation will not affect resolution, provided the FDA approves the product described above. Approval as part of a combination regimen will qualify. Approval for a narrower population than the one studied in INTerpath-001 will qualify. Approval for an indication other than melanoma will also qualify. Both standard and accelerated approval will qualify. An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application The following constitute qualifying approvals: Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs The following do not constitute qualifying approvals: Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration FDA requests for additional information or studies Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) dates Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only Approval only for export or for use outside the United States Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form If the listed drug is approved before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval. Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “Yes”
69¢
64¢
58¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?

2026-11-02 14:49 UTC

$1,204 on No at 37¢

37¢→33¢↓4¢

Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?

2026-10-29 14:16 UTC

$1,287 on No at 37¢

37¢→33¢↓4¢

Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?

2026-10-23 15:34 UTC

$1,167 on No at 35¢

35¢→33¢↓2¢

Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?

2026-10-21 15:00 UTC

$2,153 on No at 35¢

35¢→33¢↓2¢

Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?

2026-10-21 07:46 UTC

$3,101 on No at 35¢

35¢→33¢↓2¢

Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?

2026-08-27 01:47 UTC

$1,110 on No at 32¢

32¢→33¢↑1¢

Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?

2026-08-27 01:38 UTC

$2,298 on No at 35¢

35¢→33¢↓2¢

Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?

2026-08-27 01:35 UTC

$1,188 on No at 32¢

32¢→33¢↑1¢

Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?

2026-08-27 01:20 UTC

$2,727 on No at 32¢

32¢→33¢↑1¢

Related Theses