Part of: SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?

This prediction market asks whether SpaceX’s market capitalization will close above $2.2 trillion on its first day of public trading. It resolves “Yes” only if an IPO occurs and the official first-day closing market cap exceeds $2.2T; if no IPO happens by December 31, 2027, it resolves “No.” PolySpotter currently tracks $1,870 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal on this market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,870.

Categories: Tech, Big Tech, Elon Musk, IPO, SpaceX, IPOs, Climate & Science

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market bettor

A profitable cross-market bettor is adding a meaningful Yes position in a very thin SpaceX IPO valuation market, with the bet dwarfing recent activity despite a wide spread.

  • This wallet is up $5.6k lifetime and has traded across 5 related SpaceX IPO markets.
  • The $1.9k buy was about 26x the market’s recent 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a quiet market.
  • Entry at 49¢ is above the current 41¢ odds, so this is a higher-risk thesis on SpaceX clearing a $2.2T IPO valuation.

$1,870 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 42%

Top Holders

  1. 0x16c7...3931 Yes, $13,470 (42% win rate)
  2. 0x7789...a2ce No, $3,600 (57% win rate)
  3. 0xe74d...22fd No, $2,076 (36% win rate)
  4. 0x0826...0b32 No, $2,000 (62% win rate)
  5. 0x44a5...d2ee No, $1,650 (50% win rate)
  6. 0x5f45...cabc Yes, $1,420
  7. 0x7747...8f45 No, $1,363
  8. 0xf797...0bf2 No, $1,000
  9. 0x25dc...e33b No, $918 (54% win rate)
  10. 0xda9d...5071 Yes, $813

Related Theses

SpaceX IPO tops $2T

Covers 5 related markets

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?

598dSpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?$1,870 tracked1 signalTechBig TechElon MuskIPOSpaceXIPOsClimate & Science
Yes
42¢
No
58¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

Price History — “No
64¢
59¢
55¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?

2h ago

$1,870 on Yes at 49¢

49¢42¢7¢

Related Theses