Part of: SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?

This prediction market asks whether SpaceX’s market capitalization will close above $2.8 trillion on its first day of public trading. It resolves “Yes” if the official first-day closing market cap exceeds $2.8T, and “No” if it does not or if no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,148 in smart money and 1 smart money signal for this market, indicating limited but notable wallet activity.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,148.

Categories: Tech, Big Tech, Elon Musk, IPO, SpaceX, IPOs, Climate & Science

Notable Trades

Profitable wallet in thin market

A profitable, experienced wallet made a No bet that was nearly 20x this thin market’s 24h volume, suggesting conviction despite the modest absolute size.

  • This bettor is up $235k across 912 resolved trades.
  • Their $1.1k No buy was nearly 20x the market’s 24h volume.
  • The market is very quiet, so this size suggests a clear view on SpaceX not closing above $2.8T.

$1,148 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa3cc...447c Yes, $5,170 (63% win rate)
  2. 0x64d9...46e6 No, $3,000 (62% win rate)
  3. 0x2b51...e165 No, $2,185 (65% win rate)
  4. 0x685e...da4a Yes, $300
  5. 0x77e4...d18f No, $255
  6. 0xd6bd...131f Yes, $206
  7. 0x460a...e696 No, $150
  8. 0x1bc8...197a No, $50
  9. 0xad53...ef24 No, $20
  10. 0xb6b4...6709 No, $12

Related Theses

Knicks Thunder Spurs fall short

Covers 3 related markets

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?

587dSpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?$1,148 tracked1 signalTechBig TechElon MuskIPOSpaceXIPOsClimate & Science
Yes
17¢
No
83¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

Price History — “No
85¢
67¢
48¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?

5h ago

$1,148 on No at 80¢

80¢83¢3¢

Related Theses