What does the Starmer out by July 31, 2026 market predict?

This market predicts whether Keir Starmer will stop being Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time before July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. If he remains Prime Minister through the deadline, the market resolves to “No.”

How does this Polymarket resolve if Starmer announces a resignation?

If Keir Starmer announces his resignation or removal before the market end date, the market resolves to “Yes” immediately, even if the resignation or removal takes effect after July 31, 2026.

What are the main factors that could move Starmer prediction market odds?

Odds may shift based on UK political polling, Labour Party leadership pressure, parliamentary instability, scandals, major policy failures, or credible reporting about a resignation or challenge to Starmer’s leadership.

What smart money activity is PolySpotter tracking on this market?

PolySpotter is tracking $7,141 in smart money on this market, with one smart money signal and recent alerts showing elite and profitable political bettors buying “Yes.”

Where is the official resolution source for this market?

The market is expected to use official UK government sources to determine whether Keir Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister before the resolution deadline.

Part of: Starmer out by...?

Starmer out by July 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Keir Starmer will cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any point before July 31, 2026. It resolves “Yes” if he resigns, is removed, or otherwise leaves office before the deadline, including if a future resignation is announced before the market closes. PolySpotter is tracking $7,141 in smart money activity, including recent Yes-side buying from elite political bettors.

12 smart money signals detected, totaling $56,523.

Categories: Starmer, UK, keir, Grooming Gangs, Politics, World

Notable Trades

95% winner buying momentum

Sharp-wallet override: a 95% resolved-bet winner with positive P&L bought $7.1k of Yes into strong political-market momentum despite the weak detection score.

This bettor wins 95% of resolved bets and is up $20.8k lifetime.
They bought $7.1k of Yes at 89¢ as the market moved sharply higher this week.
The market is liquid, but the wallet’s track record makes the buy worth following.

$7,141 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 96%

97% winner buying Yes

Surfacing because a proven 97% winner with positive P&L is effectively buying Yes into strong market momentum.

This bettor has won 30 of 31 resolved bets and is up $2.3K lifetime.
They are effectively buying Yes at 84¢ as the market has jumped 22.5 points in the last day.
Entry at 84¢ suggests conviction that Starmer leaving before July 31, 2026 is still underpriced.

$1,835 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

Elite political bettor buying Yes

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 85% win rate bought Yes amid strong momentum and related-market positioning.

This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $1.38M lifetime.
They have traded 5 related markets in this event, totaling $111.9K in exposure.
Yes has already moved 21 points today, and this buy entered at 79¢ before the current 82¢ price.

$15,564 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Elite political bettor buying Yes

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 85% win rate bought Yes amid strong momentum and related-market positioning.

This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $1.38M lifetime.
They have traded 5 related markets in this event, totaling $111.9K in exposure.
Yes has already moved 21 points today, and this buy entered at 79¢ before the current 82¢ price.

$4,007 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Elite political bettor buying Yes

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 85% win rate bought Yes amid strong momentum and related-market positioning.

This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $1.38M lifetime.
They have traded 5 related markets in this event, totaling $111.9K in exposure.
Yes has already moved 21 points today, and this buy entered at 79¢ before the current 82¢ price.

$4,002 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Profitable cross-market bettor

Moderately interesting political position from a profitable wallet building a broader $47k cross-market thesis on Starmer-related outcomes.

This bettor is up $23.6k lifetime and has traded $47k across 5 related markets.
They are buying Yes at 41¢, implying a sizeable political-risk view on Starmer leaving before July 2026.
The market has a tight 1¢ spread, so this is a copyable entry rather than a thin-book anomaly.

$3,421 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 55%

Profitable cross-market bettor

Profitable, experienced wallet is adding a cross-market politics position into strong Yes momentum, though the signal is moderate rather than elite.

This bettor has 250 resolved trades and is up $60,674 lifetime.
They are betting across 2 related markets, with $9.6k tied to the same broader thesis.
Yes has already moved up 8 points today and 11 points this week, supporting the direction of the trade.

$2,956 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%

Profitable cross-market political bettor

Profitable high-volume wallet is building a cross-market thesis on Starmer leaving office, with $66k across 3 related markets and favorable recent price momentum.

This bettor has a long track record: 331 resolved trades, 64% wins, and $181k lifetime profit.
They have put about $66k across 3 related Starmer markets, suggesting a broader political thesis.
The Yes price is already moving, up 11 points this week, and this entry was at 41¢.

$1,162 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Proven cross-market political bettor

Serial cross-market political bettor with a strong 185-bet record and positive P&L is buying No as part of a broader Starmer-related thesis.

This bettor has won 74% of 185 resolved bets and is up about $54k lifetime.
They have placed $16.3k across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
Entry at 64¢ backs Starmer staying in office through July 2026 despite Yes rising 5.5 points this week.

$1,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

Profitable cross-market whale

Profitable whale with $1.9M lifetime P&L is building a $44K cross-market thesis and bought $11.2K of Yes in a relatively quiet political market.

This wallet is up $1.9M lifetime across $18.1M invested, despite often taking lower-probability positions.
They have $44K across 6 related markets, suggesting a focused political thesis rather than a one-off bet.
This $11.2K buy was about 77% of the market’s past-day volume, a large entry for a quiet book.

$11,159 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 42%

Top Holders

0x9648...6825 — Outcome 21535790, $93,158 (69% win rate)
0x9d84...1344 — Outcome 21535790, $60,574 (42% win rate)
0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 21535790, $14,000 (48% win rate)
0x3bef...d6e2 — Outcome 21535790, $12,464 (100% win rate)
0xe443...c065 — Outcome 21535790, $10,306
0xb4f2...e5fa — Outcome 21535790, $8,290 (74% win rate)
0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 21535790, $8,118 (70% win rate)
0xf769...0114 — Outcome 21535790, $7,102 (79% win rate)
0xcca9...4c9f — Outcome 21535790, $6,333 (63% win rate)
0xf27d...e6d3 — Outcome 21535790, $5,005 (24% win rate)

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Starmer out by July 31, 2026?

12dStarmer out by...?$56,523 tracked12 signalsStarmerUKkeirGrooming GangsPoliticsWorld

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.