Part of: State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30?

State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30?

This prediction market asks whether Chile will officially enter a legally binding State of Siege (Estado de Sitio) at any point before June 30, 2026. For a Yes outcome, the decree must explicitly qualify as a State of Siege under Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution and remain legally in effect under the market’s rules. Traders use this market to track political and constitutional risk in Chile ahead of the resolution date.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued). Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify. A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count. If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above. A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify. The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $4,970.

Categories: World, Politics, Geopolitics, Chile Election

Notable Trades

State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30?

A serial cross-market bettor with a perfect 22-for-22 resolved record just made a nearly $5k bet that was 7.8x the market’s prior 24h volume, signaling conviction despite this being a relatively thin market.

  • This bettor has won 22 of 22 resolved trades and has bet across 34 markets in 32 events
  • Their $5.0k order was about 7.8x this market’s prior 24-hour volume, a big footprint for a thin book
  • They bought No at 90¢, backing the already favored side with meaningful size and conviction

$4,970 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

  1. 0x15fd...cc95 No, $7,367 (100% win rate)
  2. 0xa2a8...8466 Yes, $4,043
  3. 0xcd20...8dfd Yes, $2,855
  4. 0xc96a...702c No, $2,329
  5. 0x3a59...a364 Yes, $2,085
  6. 0x0eee...5b68 No, $1,681
  7. 0x000d...758e No, $1,626 (85% win rate)
  8. 0xac4a...bf1e Yes, $1,329
  9. 0x7490...f0e7 Yes, $1,025
  10. 0xa364...792e Yes, $1,012

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State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30?

44dState of Siege declared in Chile by June 30? $4,970 tracked1 signalWorldPoliticsGeopoliticsChile Election
Yes
4¢
No
96¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued). Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify. A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count. If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above. A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify. The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No
100¢
97¢
94¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30?

45d ago

$4,970 on No at 90¢

90¢96¢6¢

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