Part of: U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?

U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30?

This Polymarket tracks whether U.S. government personnel will directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation, or conduct a kinetic strike against a cartel, on foreign soil by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Support-only roles such as intelligence, surveillance, logistics, or advising do not count toward a Yes resolution. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,016 in smart money exposure and 1 smart money signal on this market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,016.

Categories: Geopolitics, Mexico, Politics, Trump

Notable Trades

Profitable serial event bettor

A profitable serial cross-market trader put a $1k No bet into a very thin geopolitical market, more than 4x the prior 24h volume.

  • This bettor has won 69% of 320 resolved bets and is up $21.8k lifetime.
  • Their $1k No bet was over 4x the market’s entire 24h volume.
  • The market is thin with a wide spread, so this looks like a deliberate position rather than routine flow.

$1,016 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

Top Holders

  1. 0xb4f2...e5fa No, $1,495 (69% win rate)
  2. 0x4a2b...af20 Yes, $1,000 (43% win rate)
  3. 0x645a...fd84 No, $622
  4. 0xad52...11ac Yes, $517 (35% win rate)
  5. 0xb2e7...7b0a Yes, $466
  6. 0xeab6...d4c6 Yes, $175
  7. 0x0c54...f0bb No, $158
  8. 0x5a21...9318 Yes, $102 (60% win rate)
  9. 0x166a...d7ed No, $100 (43% win rate)
  10. 0xa2fe...2e87 No, $75

Related Theses

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30?

33dU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...? $1,016 tracked1 signalGeopoliticsMexicoPoliticsTrump
Yes
32¢
No
68¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No
69¢
65¢
61¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30?

5h ago

$1,016 on No at 68¢

68¢68¢

Related Theses