Part of: US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?

This prediction market asks whether representatives of the United States and Cuba will hold an official diplomatic meeting about US-Cuba relations by June 30, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $2,800 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal on this market, with live odds reflecting trader expectations as the deadline approaches.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Cuba between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Cuba relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Cuba, and a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,800.

Categories: Cuba, Politics, Trump, Geopolitics, Castro, Diaz-Canel

Notable Trades

Profitable bettor hits thin market

A profitable high-volume bettor put $2.8k on Yes in a very quiet US-Cuba diplomacy market, dwarfing recent volume despite the market drifting lower.

  • This wallet is up about $116k lifetime across more than 1,000 resolved bets.
  • The $2.8k Yes position was nearly 15x the market’s entire 24-hour volume.
  • The bet is on a thin diplomacy market resolving in about a month, where informed timing may matter.

$2,800 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 49%

Top Holders

  1. 0x7cfe...74da Yes, $11,195
  2. 0x38f5...6824 No, $3,745 (42% win rate)
  3. 0x5b8f...2c14 No, $2,996 (26% win rate)
  4. 0x9352...2227 Yes, $2,709 (72% win rate)
  5. 0x2779...239a No, $2,093 (74% win rate)
  6. 0x9a3f...914a Yes, $1,900 (57% win rate)
  7. 0x60a9...5a71 Yes, $1,660 (49% win rate)
  8. 0x8a98...1b92 Yes, $1,551 (51% win rate)
  9. 0xcc26...32ca No, $1,536 (40% win rate)
  10. 0x4934...5951 No, $1,177

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US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?

30dUS x Cuba diplomatic meeting by...?$2,800 tracked1 signalCubaPoliticsTrumpGeopoliticsCastroDiaz-Canel
Yes
96¢
No
4¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Cuba between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Cuba relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Cuba, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
101¢
71¢
41¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?

21h ago

$2,800 on Yes at 68¢

68¢96¢28¢

Related Theses