How are 50-basis-point Fed hikes counted?

A 50-basis-point rate increase is counted as two separate 25-basis-point hikes for this market.

Do emergency Fed rate hikes count?

Yes. Any emergency rate hikes outside scheduled FOMC meetings count toward the 2026 total.

When does the market resolve?

The market remains open through December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time, and resolves based on the Fed’s exact number of qualifying hikes in 2026.

What happens if the Fed makes fewer or more than two hikes?

The market resolves No if the Fed makes zero, one, three, or more qualifying 25-basis-point hikes. It resolves Yes only if the total is exactly two.

Part of: How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?

Q: What does the 2026 Fed rate hikes prediction market measure?

It measures whether the Federal Reserve will make exactly two 25-basis-point rate hikes during calendar year 2026.

This prediction market asks whether the Federal Reserve will make exactly two 25-basis-point rate hikes during 2026. It includes hikes at scheduled FOMC meetings, emergency increases, and any 50-basis-point hike counted as two hikes; the market resolves on December 31, 2026, and recent smart-money activity has favored No.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,823.

Categories: Rate, fomc, Global Rates, federal reserve, Fed, Jerome Powell, Kevin Warsh, CPI Release

Notable Trades

92% winner buys No in quiet market

A highly profitable serial trader with a 92% win rate placed a sizable No bet in an exceptionally quiet market, indicating meaningful conviction.

This bettor has won 92% of 1,520 resolved trades and earned more than $3 million.
They placed an $1,823 bet in a market with just $70 of 24-hour volume.
The No position was bought at 82¢, consistent with a strong view that two Fed hikes will not occur.

$1,823 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%