Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 13, 2026, through April 19, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $17,170.

Categories: Rewards 50, 4.5, 100, Iran, Oil, Strait of Hormuz, Hormuz, Geopolitics, tanker

Notable Trades

5-wallet linked Yes cluster

Five coordinated wallets, including two profitable high-win-rate bettors and linked funding, piled $17.2k into Yes as this shipping market surged from the mid-60s to 98%, signaling a strong shared thesis worth noting despite the price now being very rich.

  • Five wallets bought the same side within seconds, and two of them share a funder, showing coordinated conviction.
  • Two bettors in the group have strong records, including one winning 86% of 672 resolved bets and another winning 73% of 345.
  • The market exploded higher on a 2,423x volume spike, and the biggest buy got in at 66¢ before Yes moved to 98¢.

$17,170 on Yes

Top Holders

  1. 0x30f9...fbfc — No, $62,632
  2. 0x4414...18fa — Yes, $31,255 (73% win rate)
  3. 0xcd71...d127 — Yes, $21,401
  4. 0x9bbd...6e72 — No, $19,977
  5. 0x2f63...6643 — Yes, $10,345 (86% win rate)
  6. 0xdf97...4653 — Yes, $7,516
  7. 0xbeb9...3870 — Yes, $5,688 (52% win rate)
  8. 0x2d4b...ca7a — No, $5,258
  9. 0xd064...c4d1 — Yes, $5,192 (54% win rate)
  10. 0x80cf...7611 — Yes, $5,168

Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?

Resolved$17,170 tracked1 signalRewards 50, 4.5, 100IranOilStrait of HormuzHormuzGeopoliticstanker
Yes
100¢
No
0¢

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 13, 2026, through April 19, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Price History — “Yes”
102¢
52¢
3¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?

5h ago

$17,170 on Yes at 80¢

80¢→100¢↑20¢