Part of: Claude Mythos released by…?

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

A data leak on March 26, 2026, exposed Anthropic's unreleased "Claude Mythos" model, described as their most capable yet with significant advances in coding, reasoning, and cybersecurity, which the company has confirmed is now in early access testing. You can read more about that here: https://fortune.com/2026/03/26/anthropic-says-testing-mythos-powerful-new-ai-model-after-data-leak-reveals-its-existence-step-change-in-capabilities/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases "Claude Mythos" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Claude Mythos" (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,547.

Categories: anthropic, Tech, AI, Claude

Notable Trades

Profitable serial contrarian

A highly active, profitable cross-market trader is taking a contrarian No position after a sharp Yes price rally.

  • This bettor has a long track record: 68% wins across 1,331 resolved trades and $73.6K lifetime profit.
  • They are buying No after Yes jumped about 28 points in one day, making this a clear contrarian bet.
  • The wallet is a serial cross-market trader with over $1.0M deployed across 462 markets.

$1,160 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

New wallet AI conviction

A very new wallet has already made multiple large bets and just bought Yes at 27¢ in a moderately thin AI event market, suggesting fresh conviction worth monitoring despite no proven track record yet.

  • This wallet is less than 2 days old and has already triggered large-bet alerts twice, with about $9.3k flagged total
  • Bought Yes at 27¢ in a market with only about $9.2k of liquidity, so this was a meaningful conviction-sized bet
  • The market is tied to a real upcoming AI product release, where informed positioning is more plausible than in novelty markets

$1,387 on Yes

Top Holders

  1. 0x0d15...c454 No, $8,000 (74% win rate)
  2. 0x0482...6b0a Yes, $7,325 (30% win rate)
  3. 0x1b46...78bd No, $6,903
  4. 0xcc2c...2d20 No, $6,878
  5. 0x3f73...acef Yes, $5,332
  6. 0xb48e...a144 No, $5,000 (94% win rate)
  7. 0x7578...6426 Yes, $5,000
  8. 0x5465...5133 Yes, $4,714 (75% win rate)
  9. 0xb100...6461 Yes, $4,549 (59% win rate)
  10. 0x81aa...c075 No, $3,971 (95% win rate)

Related Theses

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Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

ResolvedClaude Mythos released by…?$2,547 tracked2 signalsanthropicTechAIClaude
Yes
43¢
No
57¢

A data leak on March 26, 2026, exposed Anthropic's unreleased "Claude Mythos" model, described as their most capable yet with significant advances in coding, reasoning, and cybersecurity, which the company has confirmed is now in early access testing. You can read more about that here: https://fortune.com/2026/03/26/anthropic-says-testing-mythos-powerful-new-ai-model-after-data-leak-reveals-its-existence-step-change-in-capabilities/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases "Claude Mythos" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Claude Mythos" (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Price History — “No
86¢
70¢
54¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

8d ago

$1,160 on No at 59¢

59¢57¢2¢

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

45d ago

$1,387 on Yes at 27¢

27¢43¢16¢

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