Part of: Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Alberta will pass a referendum establishing, planning, or expressing independence from Canada by December 31, 2026. The market resolves Yes if a qualifying referendum passes; otherwise, it resolves No. Current odds are determined by market trading, with the latest price available on the market page.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,882.

Categories: World, Canada, Trump, Politics

Notable Trades

Repeat whale buying No

A repeat large bettor with a small but perfect resolved record put $5.7k on No in a relatively quiet Alberta independence market.

  • This wallet has won all 5 resolved bets so far and is up $4.4k lifetime.
  • The $5.7k No buy was large for recent activity, flagged as over 10x the market’s thin 24h volume baseline.
  • This is a clear conviction bet at 87¢ that Alberta independence will not pass by the end of 2026.

$1,203 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

Repeat whale buying No

A repeat large bettor with a small but perfect resolved record put $5.7k on No in a relatively quiet Alberta independence market.

  • This wallet has won all 5 resolved bets so far and is up $4.4k lifetime.
  • The $5.7k No buy was large for recent activity, flagged as over 10x the market’s thin 24h volume baseline.
  • This is a clear conviction bet at 87¢ that Alberta independence will not pass by the end of 2026.

$5,679 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

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Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?$6,882 tracked2 signalsWorldCanadaTrumpPolitics
Yes
3¢
No
97¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Price History — “No”
100¢
98¢
95¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

2026-07-25 04:14 UTC

$1,203 on No at 87¢

87¢→97¢↑10¢

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

2026-06-22 16:39 UTC

$5,679 on No at 87¢

87¢→97¢↑10¢

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