Part of: Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

This Polymarket prediction market asks whether an independent candidate will win Nebraska’s 2026 U.S. Senate election, including any runoff. It resolves based on the official election winner on November 3, 2026; live odds and smart money activity may change as the race develops.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Nebraska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $40,984.

Categories: Nebraska Midterm, Senate Elections, Midterms, US Election, Elections, Politics, Dan Osborn, Pete Ricketts, Key Senate Races, Senate midterms

Notable Trades

Volume surge backs a No bet

A sharp 163x volume surge and falling Yes odds support this $1,400 No position, though the trader's record does not show a clear odds-adjusted edge.

  • Market activity spiked 163x above its historical average as this bettor bought No.
  • The No price has moved from 70¢ to 76¢; the bettor has a large history of trades and is up $245,000 overall.

$1,400 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Eight-wallet coordinated No buy

Eight wallets bought No for about $13.8K amid a 64x volume spike, making the coordinated political-market flow notable despite no clear proven edge from the wallet profiles.

  • Eight wallets put a combined $13,845 on No within seconds of each other.
  • The trades coincided with a 64x spike in market volume, a notable burst of activity in this Senate race market.
  • Most entries were around 68–70¢, close to the current No price; the wallets’ overall records are profitable but do not clearly establish an edge at these odds.

$13,845 on No

Serial trader adds to large No position

A serial cross-market trader added $22.2K to an existing No position, with two same-funder wallets putting $28.7K behind the event.

  • A bettor with 1,756 resolved trades and $881K in reported profit added another $22.2K to No.
  • Two wallets sharing a funder have put $28.7K into related markets in this event.
  • The No buy was made at 73¢, close to the current 74¢ odds, so this is a conviction signal rather than an obvious price discount.

$22,185 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%

Profitable serial trader buys No

A highly profitable serial trader with 1,082 resolved bets and a meaningful edge made a large No bet that was over four times the market's 24-hour volume.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 1,082 resolved bets and is up $3.6 million lifetime.
  • The $3,554 No position was over four times the market's 24-hour volume, signaling substantial conviction.
  • This wallet has traded 133 markets across 91 events, making the position part of an extensive forecasting track record.

$3,554 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $188,118
  2. 0xb5d1...6e35 — Yes, $66,819 (40% win rate)
  3. 0x9c99...7250 — No, $65,760 (100% win rate)
  4. 0xdaef...54e9 — Yes, $44,391 (68% win rate)
  5. 0x44d9...4c1a — Yes, $44,390 (53% win rate)
  6. 0xf031...c80c — No, $31,993 (89% win rate)
  7. 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $31,270 (72% win rate)
  8. 0xf559...f462 — Yes, $25,878 (92% win rate)
  9. 0xeb22...808a — Yes, $20,000 (35% win rate)
  10. 0xcc50...df9b — Yes, $19,167 (82% win rate)

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Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

Nebraska Senate Election Winner $40,984 tracked4 signalsNebraska MidtermSenate ElectionsMidtermsUS ElectionElectionsPoliticsDan OsbornPete RickettsKey Senate RacesSenate midterms
Yes
32¢
No
69¢

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Nebraska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Price History — “No”
81¢
73¢
66¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-31 08:05 UTC

$1,400 on No at 70¢

70¢→69¢↓1¢

Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-31 07:15 UTC

$13,845 on No at 69¢

69¢→69¢

Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-22 19:24 UTC

$22,185 on No at 73¢

73¢→69¢↓4¢

Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

2026-09-14 19:27 UTC

$3,554 on No at 67¢

67¢→69¢↑2¢

Related Theses