Part of: rio-de-janeiro-governor-election-winner-20260608202949176

Will André Ceciliano win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?

The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,614.

Categories: Brazil, Elections, Politics, Global Elections, Main Election

Notable Trades

Profitable wallet in thin market

A profitable wallet made a position-sized No bet in a very quiet Rio governor market, moving with the recent sharp collapse in Yes odds.

  • This bettor is up about $39k lifetime and has made 112 resolved bets.
  • Their $1.6k No buy was nearly 30x the market’s prior 24h volume, showing real conviction in a quiet race.
  • Yes odds have fallen sharply, and this trade entered No at 87¢ before the market moved to 94¢.

$1,614 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%

Top Holders

  1. 0x1f9e...4f1a No, $1,864 (59% win rate)
  2. 0x167a...91d5 Yes, $579 (62% win rate)
  3. 0x03e1...e180 Yes, $300
  4. 0xf33e...0ab8 Yes, $250
  5. 0xfe41...9f23 Yes, $200
  6. 0xc8ab...6418 Yes, $200 (47% win rate)
  7. 0xa3e2...fdf8 Yes, $119
  8. 0x7495...7fcf Yes, $93
  9. 0xc24f...220b No, $84
  10. 0xc602...7fc1 Yes, $80 (39% win rate)

Related Theses

Neither Ceciliano nor Luizinho wins

Covers 2 related markets

Will André Ceciliano win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?

113drio-de-janeiro-governor-election-winner-20260608202949176$1,614 tracked1 signalBrazilElectionsPoliticsGlobal ElectionsMain Election
Yes
6¢
No
94¢

The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Price History — “No
97¢
78¢
59¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will André Ceciliano win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?

1h ago

$1,614 on No at 87¢

87¢94¢7¢

Related Theses