Part of: Which company has the best AI model end of April?
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,167.
Categories: Tech, Big Tech, AI, Rewards 50, 4.5, 100, Claude
Notable Trades
93% win-rate AI bettor
A highly proven 93% win-rate wallet with activity across 217 events bought Anthropic Yes after a sharp weekly price drop, making this a credible follow from a consistently successful trader.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades with $107k profit across 857 bets.
- They trade across 217 events and 333 markets, which suggests a repeatable process rather than a one-off punt.
- They bought Yes at 70¢ after this market fell 23% in a week, signaling they may see the pullback as mispriced.
$1,900 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%
93% winner in funded cluster
A 93% win-rate wallet from a 10-wallet funded cluster is buying Anthropic Yes, making this a strong follow signal despite the modest ticket size.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades with $30.9k profit across 61 settled markets.
- 10 wallets share the same funder, suggesting a coordinated operator with repeated activity across prior runs.
- They bought Yes at 64¢ after a 28-point weekly drop, signaling conviction into recent weakness.
$1,171 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
96% win-rate AI bettor
A proven sharp wallet with a 96% win rate and nearly $186k in profit is taking another cross-market AI position, which is notable despite the modest size and limited signal diversity.
- This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades and is up $186k across nearly $3.8M invested
- They trade across many related markets with a strong record: 250 events and 298 markets flagged
- They bought Anthropic at 89¢ even after a recent pullback, signaling confidence in a still heavily favored outcome
$1,096 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%
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