Part of: Which company has the second best AI model end of May?
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?
This prediction market asks whether Anthropic will own the model ranked second overall on the Chatbot Arena Text Arena leaderboard at the end of May 2026. Resolution is based on the Rank column under the Text Arena | Overall leaderboard with style control off, checked on May 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,118 in smart money and 1 smart money signal for this market, including a recent alert showing an 87% winner buying Yes.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,118.
Categories: Tech, Big Tech, AI, Rewards 20, 4.5, 50
Notable Trades
87% winner buying Yes
Sharp wallet override: despite only a weak low-activity signal, this bettor has an 87% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L, making the Yes buy worth surfacing.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $12.3K lifetime.
- They bought $1.1K of Yes, equal to about 72% of recent 24h volume.
- The market is fairly thin, so this is a meaningful conviction add at 86¢.
$1,118 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $4,519
- 0x5e84...8e88 — Yes, $1,780 (87% win rate)
- 0xd905...ad7c — Yes, $1,453
- 0x28b2...eb4f — Yes, $746 (68% win rate)
- 0x7e80...631b — No, $243
- 0xb52f...3c2d — Yes, $220 (64% win rate)
- 0xd49b...bdf9 — Yes, $204 (63% win rate)
- 0xaee8...1154 — Yes, $200
- 0x3823...1140 — Yes, $193
- 0x75e5...0059 — Yes, $126
Related Theses
WTI stays range-bound in May
Covers 3 related markets
