Part of: Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?
This prediction market asks whether Anthropic’s private market valuation will reach or exceed $2.0 trillion by December 31, 2026, based on Nasdaq Private Market’s reported NPM Price. The market resolves after the period ends, with final resolution scheduled for January 1, 2027. PolySpotter is tracking $7,474 in smart money activity across 1 signal, including whale and funded-wallet cluster alerts around Anthropic’s AI valuation outlook.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
16 smart money signals detected, totaling $249,954.
Categories: Finance, Privates, llm, anthropic, Dario Amodei, Tech, Claude, Big Tech, AI, Anthropic IPO
Notable Trades
16-wallet valuation bear
High-conviction bearish Anthropic valuation trade from a profitable wallet tied to a 16-wallet funded cluster and broader cross-market positioning.
- A profitable wallet is betting against the $2T Anthropic valuation outcome and is up about $895K lifetime.
- 16 wallets funded by the same source are connected to this activity, suggesting coordinated conviction.
- The trader has $65.9K across 4 related Anthropic valuation markets, making this more than a one-off bet.
$7,474 on No | Wallet win rate: 52%
Whale backing AI valuation
A profitable high-volume wallet put $60.7k into Yes across two thin Anthropic valuation markets, including a very large bet relative to daily volume.
- This wallet has traded $13.2M and is up $125k lifetime, so the large bet comes from an experienced bettor.
- They bought $60.7k of Yes across two related Anthropic valuation markets with almost no recent activity.
- The displayed market had only $148 of 24h volume, making even the smaller $2.1k buy a major conviction signal.
$60,736 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 51%
82% winner buying Yes
Sharp profitable wallet with 82% resolved win rate and extensive cross-market history is effectively buying Yes on Anthropic reaching a $2T valuation.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $134k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 26 events with $94k deployed and the same 82% win rate.
- Selling No at 58¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 42¢, implying they see upside in the $2T valuation case.
$2,034 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
Profitable sharp fading upside
Surface: proven profitable wallet sold Yes, effectively backing No, with a strong 77% resolved-bet record and a $42.9k cross-market Anthropic valuation thesis.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved bets and is up $567k lifetime.
- They put $42.9k across 4 related Anthropic valuation markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- This trade effectively backs No at 62¢ on Anthropic reaching a $2T valuation.
$11,403 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
Sharp wallet buying AI upside
A profitable 81% win-rate wallet made a $19.4k effective BUY on Yes in a quiet market as part of a broader Anthropic valuation thesis.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $10.6k lifetime.
- The $19.4k trade is an effective Yes buy at 38¢, over 3x recent daily volume.
- They have $23.1k positioned across related Anthropic valuation markets.
$19,389 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
12-wallet cluster fading valuation
High-severity linked-wallet cluster and cross-market positioning suggest a coordinated bearish thesis on Anthropic reaching a $2T valuation, despite this individual trade being modest in size.
- 12 linked wallets share the same funder and are positioning around this market.
- The same actor has spread about $59.8K across 4 related Anthropic valuation markets.
- This trade sells Yes at 46¢, effectively backing No at 54¢.
$1,380 on No | Wallet win rate: 52%
85% winner buying momentum
Surface due to a proven profitable wallet with 85% win rate adding a cross-market Yes position as odds move upward.
- This bettor has won 85% of 428 resolved bets and is up about $16K lifetime.
- They are building a related cross-market thesis, with $3.1K placed across 2 Anthropic valuation markets.
- The market has moved +7.5 percentage points today, supporting the direction of the buy.
$1,150 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%
Sharp wallet backing AI valuation
Sharp profitable wallet with a 77% long-term win rate is building a cross-market Anthropic valuation thesis with another $6.9k buy on Yes.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $566k lifetime.
- They have put $38k across 4 related Anthropic valuation markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- The market is already moving their way, with Yes up 8 points in the past day.
$6,900 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
11-wallet funded valuation push
An 11-wallet funded cluster is making a large coordinated Yes bet across Anthropic valuation markets, with this wallet buying $37.6k at 38¢ before the price jumped to 59¢.
- 11 linked wallets share the same funder and have put $78k behind this Anthropic valuation thesis.
- This wallet bought $37.6k of Yes at 38¢, and the market has already moved to 59¢.
- The bet is large versus $14k liquidity, suggesting high conviction in a thin market.
$37,620 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 52%
11-wallet funded whale cluster
High-conviction linked-wallet flow: an 11-wallet funded cluster is buying Yes across related Anthropic valuation markets, with this wallet putting $78k into a thin market and moving odds sharply higher.
- 11 wallets funded by the same source are backing the same Anthropic valuation thesis.
- This wallet put $78k into Yes, larger than the market’s available liquidity and pushing odds up about 20 points today.
- The bettor is up about $869k lifetime, though their win rate is only 52% across nearly 1,000 resolved bets.
$78,401 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 52%
Top Holders
- 0x53c4...740b — No, $129,635 (82% win rate)
- 0x8a4c...532b — Yes, $80,323 (52% win rate)
- 0x1543...baaf — Yes, $21,758 (36% win rate)
- 0x7c30...7673 — Yes, $6,338 (87% win rate)
- 0x7f45...284b — Yes, $6,215
- 0xac4a...bf1e — Yes, $4,468
- 0xa569...96ec — Yes, $4,000 (100% win rate)
- 0xa075...589f — Yes, $2,684
- 0x35a3...2a32 — Yes, $2,407
- 0x5e73...6697 — No, $2,383 (69% win rate)
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