Part of: Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?
This prediction market tracks whether Anthropic’s private-market valuation will reach or exceed $2.0 trillion on any trading day through December 31, 2026. It resolves using the Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) Price, with Yes and No odds reflecting market expectations about Anthropic’s valuation and potential IPO prospects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
22 smart money signals detected, totaling $261,233.
Categories: Finance, Privates, llm, Anthropic, Dario Amodei, Claude, Big Tech, AI, Anthropic IPO, anthropic, Tech
Notable Trades
16-wallet valuation bear
High-conviction bearish Anthropic valuation trade from a profitable wallet tied to a 16-wallet funded cluster and broader cross-market positioning.
- A profitable wallet is betting against the $2T Anthropic valuation outcome and is up about $895K lifetime.
- 16 wallets funded by the same source are connected to this activity, suggesting coordinated conviction.
- The trader has $65.9K across 4 related Anthropic valuation markets, making this more than a one-off bet.
$1,190 on No | Wallet win rate: 53%
16-wallet valuation bear
High-conviction bearish Anthropic valuation trade from a profitable wallet tied to a 16-wallet funded cluster and broader cross-market positioning.
- A profitable wallet is betting against the $2T Anthropic valuation outcome and is up about $895K lifetime.
- 16 wallets funded by the same source are connected to this activity, suggesting coordinated conviction.
- The trader has $65.9K across 4 related Anthropic valuation markets, making this more than a one-off bet.
$1,102 on No | Wallet win rate: 53%
New wallet scaling into Yes
A four-day-old wallet is repeatedly scaling into Yes, with a $2,287 addition representing over four times the market's 24-hour volume despite having no resolved track record.
- This four-day-old wallet has made three flagged bets totaling $4,380 and is adding to an existing Yes position.
- The $2,287 purchase was more than four times the market's roughly $516 daily volume, signaling strong conviction in a thin trading window.
- The wallet has no resolved positions yet, so its edge is unproven despite the repeated buying pattern.
$2,287 on Yes
16-wallet valuation bear
High-conviction bearish Anthropic valuation trade from a profitable wallet tied to a 16-wallet funded cluster and broader cross-market positioning.
- A profitable wallet is betting against the $2T Anthropic valuation outcome and is up about $895K lifetime.
- 16 wallets funded by the same source are connected to this activity, suggesting coordinated conviction.
- The trader has $65.9K across 4 related Anthropic valuation markets, making this more than a one-off bet.
$3,845 on No | Wallet win rate: 53%
Serial trader scaling into Yes
A serial cross-market trader with 140 resolved bets and a 73% win rate is adding $1,090 to an existing Yes position in a thinly traded market.
- This bettor has made 140 resolved bets with a 73% win rate and is up $21,865.
- The $1,090 purchase exceeded the detector's recent $887 trading volume, showing meaningful conviction in a relatively thin market.
- This is an add to an existing Yes position at 69¢, rather than a routine one-off trade.
$1,090 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
Sharp bettor sells Anthropic YES
A highly profitable bettor with a 79% win rate and strong historical edge is making a sizable bearish trade in a thin market while positioning across five related markets.
- This bettor wins 79% of 502 resolved trades and is up $565,364, with entries averaging 56%.
- The $1,765 sell is nearly twice the market’s entire 24-hour volume, making the bearish signal unusually concentrated.
- The wallet has traded across five related markets with $73,458 in total exposure, suggesting a broader event thesis rather than an isolated move.
$1,765 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
16-wallet valuation bear
High-conviction bearish Anthropic valuation trade from a profitable wallet tied to a 16-wallet funded cluster and broader cross-market positioning.
- A profitable wallet is betting against the $2T Anthropic valuation outcome and is up about $895K lifetime.
- 16 wallets funded by the same source are connected to this activity, suggesting coordinated conviction.
- The trader has $65.9K across 4 related Anthropic valuation markets, making this more than a one-off bet.
$7,474 on No | Wallet win rate: 53%
Whale backing AI valuation
A profitable high-volume wallet put $60.7k into Yes across two thin Anthropic valuation markets, including a very large bet relative to daily volume.
- This wallet has traded $13.2M and is up $125k lifetime, so the large bet comes from an experienced bettor.
- They bought $60.7k of Yes across two related Anthropic valuation markets with almost no recent activity.
- The displayed market had only $148 of 24h volume, making even the smaller $2.1k buy a major conviction signal.
$60,736 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 53%
82% winner buying Yes
Sharp profitable wallet with 82% resolved win rate and extensive cross-market history is effectively buying Yes on Anthropic reaching a $2T valuation.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $134k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 26 events with $94k deployed and the same 82% win rate.
- Selling No at 58¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 42¢, implying they see upside in the $2T valuation case.
$2,034 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
Profitable sharp fading upside
Surface: proven profitable wallet sold Yes, effectively backing No, with a strong 77% resolved-bet record and a $42.9k cross-market Anthropic valuation thesis.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved bets and is up $567k lifetime.
- They put $42.9k across 4 related Anthropic valuation markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- This trade effectively backs No at 62¢ on Anthropic reaching a $2T valuation.
$11,403 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Top Holders
- 0x8a4c...532b — Yes, $55,888 (53% win rate)
- 0x53c4...740b — No, $53,240 (82% win rate)
- 0x3a8a...7699 — Yes, $52,821 (64% win rate)
- 0x6550...8451 — No, $15,620 (53% win rate)
- 0xdf1c...2ebb — No, $14,485 (94% win rate)
- 0x708d...ea78 — No, $12,983 (64% win rate)
- 0x4478...02a4 — No, $10,045 (59% win rate)
- 0xec62...8aef — No, $10,000
- 0xa569...96ec — Yes, $7,000 (96% win rate)
- 0x7f45...284b — Yes, $6,215
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