Part of: Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?

This prediction market asks whether Anthropic’s private market valuation, based on Nasdaq Private Market’s NPM Price, will reach or exceed $2.5 trillion on any trading day through December 31, 2026. It resolves after the valuation window, with resolution scheduled for January 1, 2027; recent tracked smart money activity shows profitable wallets fading the Yes side and buying No.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,328.

Categories: Finance, Privates, llm, anthropic, Dario Amodei, Tech, Claude, Big Tech, AI

Notable Trades

Sharp bettor fading upside

Sharp wallet with a 77% record and $567k lifetime profit is taking the No side as part of a larger cross-market Anthropic valuation thesis.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $567k lifetime.
  • They have $57k positioned across 4 related Anthropic valuation markets.
  • Selling Yes at 29¢ is equivalent to buying No at 71¢, a bet that $2.5T is too high.

$1,436 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%

New profitable wallet fading Yes

New repeat wallet with early profits is taking the No side on a quiet private-valuation market with a bet larger than recent daily volume.

  • This new repeat bettor is already up $1,779 across 5 resolved bets.
  • They sold Yes at 30¢, effectively buying No at 70¢ on a very quiet market.
  • The trade was larger than recent daily volume, suggesting conviction in a thin order book.

$1,062 on No | Wallet win rate: 60%

84% winner buying No

Sharp profitable wallet with 84% resolved win rate is buying No on Anthropic reaching a $2.5T valuation despite only modest trade size and weak composite score.

  • This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $52.7K lifetime.
  • They have a deep track record: 90 wins on 107 resolved bets with a strong edge versus market odds.
  • Entry at 65¢ on No means they are fading the recent 23-point weekly move toward Yes.

$1,047 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

Profitable cross-market sharp

Sharp wallet with a 77% resolved win rate and $566k profit is adding to a broader $39k cross-market Anthropic valuation thesis.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $566k lifetime.
  • They have put $39k across 4 related Anthropic valuation markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
  • Entry at 28¢ implies they see this as a roughly 3.6x payoff if Anthropic reaches the target.

$1,687 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%

85% winner buying No

Surfacing because a proven profitable wallet with an 85% win rate is buying No despite only a modest cross-market signal.

  • This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $28,657 lifetime.
  • They are expressing the same thesis across 2 Anthropic valuation markets with $2,100 in total exposure.
  • Entry at 73¢ suggests they see the $2.5T valuation target as unlikely despite Yes moving up 12 points today.

$1,095 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

Top Holders

  1. 0x7365...64da Yes, $7,479 (54% win rate)
  2. 0x7f45...284b Yes, $4,111
  3. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $4,014 (47% win rate)
  4. 0x4337...8882 No, $3,392 (74% win rate)
  5. 0xf2fa...4a62 No, $2,676 (42% win rate)
  6. 0x8a4c...532b Yes, $2,555 (52% win rate)
  7. 0x35a3...2a32 Yes, $2,417
  8. 0x8420...6183 Yes, $1,890
  9. 0xbace...3429 No, $1,800 (81% win rate)
  10. 0xac4a...bf1e Yes, $1,587

Related Theses

Anthropic valuation tops $2.5T

Covers 5 related markets

Spain scores four plus

Covers 1 related market

Anthropic hits $2T only

Covers 3 related markets

WTI climbs but stays contained

Covers 4 related markets

Colombia not ahead at halftime

Covers 1 related market

MIBR beats B8 convincingly

Covers 2 related markets

B8 wins Map 2

Covers 1 related market

NRG beats BBL convincingly

Covers 2 related markets

Morocco not ahead at halftime

Covers 1 related market

Netherlands wins on June 20

Covers 1 related market

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?

166dWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?$6,328 tracked5 signalsFinancePrivatesllmanthropicDario AmodeiTechClaudeBig TechAI
Yes
17¢
No
83¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Price History — “No
88¢
82¢
76¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?

41d ago

$1,436 on No at 71¢

71¢83¢12¢

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?

45d ago

$1,062 on No at 70¢

70¢83¢13¢

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?

53d ago

$1,047 on No at 65¢

65¢83¢18¢

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?

55d ago

$1,687 on Yes at 28¢

28¢17¢11¢

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?

59d ago

$1,095 on No at 73¢

73¢83¢10¢

Related Theses