Part of: Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?

This prediction market asks whether Anthropic’s private market valuation will reach or exceed $4.0 trillion by December 31, 2026, based on Nasdaq Private Market’s reported NPM Price. It resolves after the period ends, with “Yes” if any published trading-day valuation meets the threshold and “No” otherwise. PolySpotter is tracking $1,383 in smart money activity and 1 signal on this market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,383.

Categories: Finance, Privates, llm, anthropic, Dario Amodei, Tech, Claude, Big Tech, AI

Notable Trades

Proven AI valuation bettor

Sharp profitable wallet with a 77% resolved win rate is building a broader Anthropic valuation thesis across five related markets.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $567k lifetime.
  • They have put $61.8k across 5 related Anthropic valuation markets, showing a broader thesis.
  • This buy was over 2x the market’s 24h volume, a large move in a quiet market.

$1,383 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Top Holders

  1. 0xbec7...5977 Yes, $16,309 (77% win rate)
  2. 0x53c4...740b No, $10,881 (81% win rate)
  3. 0x1543...baaf Yes, $7,936 (69% win rate)
  4. 0x31d6...e66c No, $4,396 (64% win rate)
  5. 0xe3a1...3c87 No, $3,400
  6. 0x001d...ac84 No, $2,089
  7. 0x1421...9e62 No, $962
  8. 0x0a60...7b81 Yes, $952 (47% win rate)
  9. 0xf6c6...7d80 No, $660
  10. 0x09bd...6f5a Yes, $600

Related Theses

Anthropic reaches $4T valuation

Covers 5 related markets

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?

206dWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?$1,383 tracked1 signalFinancePrivatesllmanthropicDario AmodeiTechClaudeBig TechAI
Yes
10¢
No
91¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Price History — “No
93¢
91¢
88¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?

1h ago

$1,383 on Yes at 11¢

11¢10¢1¢

Related Theses