Part of: Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
8 smart money signals detected, totaling $21,169.
Categories: AI, Tech, Big Tech, AI Benchmarks
Notable Trades
93% serial trader buys Yes
A highly active, profitable serial trader with a 93% historical win rate bought Yes at 90¢ before the market rose to 93¢, though the price is already heavily favored.
- This bettor has won 93% of 1,388 resolved trades and is up $324,773 lifetime.
- The wallet has traded across 56 events and 64 markets, indicating a broad and repeatable trading pattern.
- It bought Yes at 90¢, just below the current 93¢ price, leaving limited upside at this late entry.
$1,180 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%
93% serial trader buys Yes
A highly active, profitable serial trader with a 93% historical win rate bought Yes at 90¢ before the market rose to 93¢, though the price is already heavily favored.
- This bettor has won 93% of 1,388 resolved trades and is up $324,773 lifetime.
- The wallet has traded across 56 events and 64 markets, indicating a broad and repeatable trading pattern.
- It bought Yes at 90¢, just below the current 93¢ price, leaving limited upside at this late entry.
$3,200 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%
93% serial trader buys Yes
A highly active, profitable serial trader with a 93% historical win rate bought Yes at 90¢ before the market rose to 93¢, though the price is already heavily favored.
- This bettor has won 93% of 1,388 resolved trades and is up $324,773 lifetime.
- The wallet has traded across 56 events and 64 markets, indicating a broad and repeatable trading pattern.
- It bought Yes at 90¢, just below the current 93¢ price, leaving limited upside at this late entry.
$2,017 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%
93% serial trader buys Yes
A highly active, profitable serial trader with a 93% historical win rate bought Yes at 90¢ before the market rose to 93¢, though the price is already heavily favored.
- This bettor has won 93% of 1,388 resolved trades and is up $324,773 lifetime.
- The wallet has traded across 56 events and 64 markets, indicating a broad and repeatable trading pattern.
- It bought Yes at 90¢, just below the current 93¢ price, leaving limited upside at this late entry.
$2,210 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%
93% serial trader buys Yes
A highly active, profitable serial trader with a 93% historical win rate bought Yes at 90¢ before the market rose to 93¢, though the price is already heavily favored.
- This bettor has won 93% of 1,388 resolved trades and is up $324,773 lifetime.
- The wallet has traded across 56 events and 64 markets, indicating a broad and repeatable trading pattern.
- It bought Yes at 90¢, just below the current 93¢ price, leaving limited upside at this late entry.
$2,921 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%
93% serial trader buys Yes
A highly active, profitable serial trader with a 93% historical win rate bought Yes at 90¢ before the market rose to 93¢, though the price is already heavily favored.
- This bettor has won 93% of 1,388 resolved trades and is up $324,773 lifetime.
- The wallet has traded across 56 events and 64 markets, indicating a broad and repeatable trading pattern.
- It bought Yes at 90¢, just below the current 93¢ price, leaving limited upside at this late entry.
$7,136 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%
93% serial trader buys Yes
A highly active, profitable serial trader with a 93% historical win rate bought Yes at 90¢ before the market rose to 93¢, though the price is already heavily favored.
- This bettor has won 93% of 1,388 resolved trades and is up $324,773 lifetime.
- The wallet has traded across 56 events and 64 markets, indicating a broad and repeatable trading pattern.
- It bought Yes at 90¢, just below the current 93¢ price, leaving limited upside at this late entry.
$1,354 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%
93% serial trader buys Yes
A highly active, profitable serial trader with a 93% historical win rate bought Yes at 90¢ before the market rose to 93¢, though the price is already heavily favored.
- This bettor has won 93% of 1,388 resolved trades and is up $324,773 lifetime.
- The wallet has traded across 56 events and 64 markets, indicating a broad and repeatable trading pattern.
- It bought Yes at 90¢, just below the current 93¢ price, leaving limited upside at this late entry.
$1,152 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%
Top Holders
- 0x6f9a...26a3 — No, $6,171
- 0x1cc1...b8df — No, $2,421 (56% win rate)
- 0xfe05...931c — No, $1,837 (81% win rate)
- 0xa676...1c22 — No, $1,615 (44% win rate)
- 0x44c1...ebc1 — No, $1,600 (62% win rate)
- 0x2997...83e1 — No, $1,000
- 0x4e4e...bb20 — No, $1,000
- 0x92e5...efee — No, $999 (49% win rate)
- 0xb51b...b4d9 — No, $987 (59% win rate)
- 0x73bd...ac54 — No, $858
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