Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $10,408.

Categories: China, Geopolitics, Politics, Taiwan

Notable Trades

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.

  • LLM evaluation inconclusive

$8,729 | Wallet win rate: 77%

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.

  • LLM evaluation inconclusive

$1,679 | Wallet win rate: 77%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9c96...8708 Yes, $16,736 (100% win rate)
  2. 0x74bf...2a6e No, $13,113 (70% win rate)
  3. 0xb886...81b3 Yes, $8,967
  4. 0xdd1d...bbf0 No, $2,658 (81% win rate)
  5. 0x73d2...f9b7 No, $2,000 (76% win rate)
  6. 0x2814...5596 Yes, $1,668
  7. 0x585d...19b6 No, $1,649
  8. 0x11d3...7471 No, $1,327
  9. 0x6779...2ff6 No, $1,286
  10. 0x3625...bdee No, $1,209

Related Theses

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

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Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

426d$10,408 tracked2 signalsChinaGeopoliticsPoliticsTaiwan
Yes
14¢
No
86¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Price History — “No
88¢
86¢
84¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

2h ago

$8,729

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

2h ago

$1,679

Related Theses