Part of: Claude 5 released by…?

Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Anthropic will make Claude 5 publicly available by June 12, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves “Yes” only if Claude 5 is clearly announced and accessible to the general public, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups; private or closed beta access does not count. PolySpotter is tracking $2,692 in smart money activity and 1 signal for this AI market ahead of its June 30, 2026 resolution date.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by June 12 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,692.

Categories: AI, Tech, Claude 5

Notable Trades

Profitable high-win bettor

A profitable 83% win-rate wallet made a fresh Yes buy that overwhelms this thin, low-volume market, making the trader more notable than the signal alone.

  • This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $5.1k lifetime across 1,058 outcomes.
  • The $2.7k Yes buy is larger than this market’s full reported volume, showing strong conviction in a thin book.
  • Entry at 80¢ means they are backing Claude 5 release by the deadline as a high-probability outcome.

$2,692 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%

Top Holders

  1. 0x0d15...c454 — No, $5,000 (76% win rate)
  2. 0x6385...93f2 — Yes, $3,366 (83% win rate)
  3. 0x4d1b...1419 — Yes, $1,000 (70% win rate)
  4. 0xddad...d5db — Yes, $640
  5. 0x0578...e1fb — No, $561
  6. 0xb51b...b4d9 — Yes, $540 (61% win rate)
  7. 0x0f2b...665a — Yes, $500
  8. 0xc507...5d1e — No, $500
  9. 0xbb4f...dba2 — Yes, $428
  10. 0x75a2...6992 — Yes, $90

Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026?

20dClaude 5 released by…?$2,692 tracked1 signalAITechClaude 5
Yes
83¢
No
18¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by June 12 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes”
85¢
77¢
70¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026?

1h ago

$2,692 on Yes at 80¢

80¢→83¢↑3¢